Football · New Zealand Football Championship · 24/10, 03:00

Prediction: Auckland City vs Auckland United FC

Team pages: Auckland City · Auckland United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Auckland City2.06

Auckland United FC1.35

1X2

53% 22% 24%

Auckland City Draw Auckland United FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Auckland City 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWDWDW

Auckland United FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLDWDW

Head-to-head

Auckland City 2–3–1 Auckland United FC (6 last)

Auckland City1-1Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC1-0Auckland City
Auckland City4-2Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC2-2Auckland City
Auckland City1-0Auckland United FC
Auckland City0-0Auckland United FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Auckland City 1631 · Auckland United FC 1556

	Auckland City	Draw	Auckland United FC
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	54%	22%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland City (rating 1631 vs 1556).
H2H favours Auckland City: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Auckland City	Auckland United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.67▼	Pinn 1.72
X	3.90 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	3.00 → 3.60▲	Pinn 4.03 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:47 +26’	1.90	3.90	3.00
21:36 +3’	1.75▼	4.00▲	3.40▲
05:59 +7’	1.67▼	4.10▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +16’	1.84	3.64	3.66
19:26 +66’	1.70▼	3.80▲	4.14▲
01:35 +34’	1.72▲	3.81▲	4.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland City 2–3–1 Auckland United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	1-1 HT 0-0	Auckland United FC
06/04/26 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Auckland City
08/11/25 New Zealand Football Championship	Auckland City	4-2 HT 3-1	Auckland United FC
23/08/25 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	2-2 HT 0-2	Auckland City
24/05/25 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	1-0 HT 0-0	Auckland United FC
08/06/24 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland City	0-0 HT 0-0	Auckland United FC

Standings · New Zealand Football Championship · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	22	18	4	0	58	13	58
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	22	14	5	3	41	9	47
3	Auckland City	22	14	3	5	51	19	45
4	Auckland United FC	22	12	5	5	47	21	41
5	Fencibles United	22	13	2	7	55	36	41
6	East Coast Bays	22	10	5	7	34	35	35
7	Auckland FC II	22	8	3	11	38	40	27
8	Western Springs AFC	22	7	3	12	33	40	24
9	Melville United	22	6	2	14	24	48	20
10	Bay Olympic	22	4	4	14	23	56	16
11	Tauranga City AFC	22	4	3	15	29	52	15
12	Manukau United	22	2	1	19	14	78	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Auckland City	Auckland United FC
Wellington Olympic	2-2 D	0-3 L
Coastal Spirit	3-0 W	3-0 W
Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Auckland City (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Auckland City

DWLWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
10/10	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Football Championship	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	4-2	1	8	W
13/12	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	1-1	11	8	D
06/12	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	3-0	8	0	W
30/11	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Football Championship	1-1	3-1	6	7	W
22/11	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/11	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Football Championship	0-2	0-3	9	5	L
08/11	Auckland United FC New Zealand Football Championship	3-1	4-2	1	4	W
01/11	Christchurch United New Zealand Football Championship	0-2	2-2	3	2	D

Auckland United FC

WLWLLLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
11/10	Auckland FC II New Zealand Football Championship	0-1	2-2	10	3	D
04/10	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Football Championship	3-1	7-1	9	1	W
26/09	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Football Championship	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
07/12	Auckland FC II New Zealand Football Championship	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
30/11	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Football Championship	0-3	0-3	4	1	L
23/11	Western Suburbs New Zealand Football Championship	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
15/11	Birkenhead United New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	3-2	6	2	W
08/11	Auckland City New Zealand Football Championship	1-3	2-4	3	4	L
01/11	Coastal Spirit New Zealand Football Championship	1-0	3-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Auckland City vs Auckland United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland City win (53%). Probabilities: Auckland City 53%, draw 22%, Auckland United FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Auckland City vs Auckland United FC?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Auckland City 2.06 · Auckland United FC 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Auckland City vs Auckland United FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.