Football · England Northern Premier League · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Warrington Town vs Gainsborough

Team pages: Warrington Town · Gainsborough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Warrington Town1.61

Gainsborough1.49

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Warrington Town Draw Gainsborough

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Warrington Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWLDWL

Gainsborough 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLDWLL

Head-to-head

Warrington Town 1–2–3 Gainsborough (6 last)

Warrington Town0-3Gainsborough
Gainsborough2-0Warrington Town
Gainsborough1-1Warrington Town
Warrington Town0-2Gainsborough
Gainsborough1-1Warrington Town
Warrington Town1-0Gainsborough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warrington Town 1530 · Gainsborough 1529

	Warrington Town	Draw	Gainsborough
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gainsborough: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warrington Town	Gainsborough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:39 +4’	2.25	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warrington Town 1–2–3 Gainsborough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	0-3 HT 0-1	Gainsborough
06/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	2-0	Warrington Town
01/04/23 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	1-1	Warrington Town
11/10/22 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	0-2 HT 0-2	Gainsborough
11/12/21 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	1-1	Warrington Town
11/09/21 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	1-0 HT 0-1	Gainsborough

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	10	7	2	1	25	6	23
2	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
3	Redcar Athletic	10	6	4	0	19	7	22
4	Guiseley	9	6	1	2	22	10	19
5	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
6	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
7	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
8	Workington	9	5	1	3	17	15	16
9	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
10	Warrington Rylands	9	4	1	4	12	13	13
11	Alfreton Town	9	4	0	5	15	10	12
12	Whitby	9	4	0	5	14	24	12
13	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
14	Hyde Utd	10	3	2	5	11	19	11
15	Emley AFC	9	2	4	3	8	15	10
16	Lancaster City	9	3	1	5	9	17	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Bamber Bridge	10	2	3	5	14	27	9
19	Stockton Town	10	2	2	6	13	20	8
20	Ilkeston	9	2	1	6	6	21	7
21	Quorn	9	1	3	5	12	23	6
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warrington Town	Gainsborough
FC United of Manchester	1-4 L	3-0 W
Cleethorpes Town	1-1 D	0-3 L
Hyde Utd	3-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Warrington Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warrington Town

LWWDWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
01/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
18/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
15/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
08/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/04	Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L

Gainsborough

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
28/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
25/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
18/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
11/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
08/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warrington Town vs Gainsborough?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warrington Town win (40%). Probabilities: Warrington Town 40%, draw 26%, Gainsborough 34%.

How many goals are expected in Warrington Town vs Gainsborough?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Warrington Town 1.61 · Gainsborough 1.49), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Warrington Town vs Gainsborough?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.