Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Llanes vs UC Ceares

Team pages: Llanes · UC Ceares

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Llanes1.38

UC Ceares0.97

1X2

46% 29% 26%

Llanes Draw UC Ceares

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Llanes 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDDLDLWW

UC Ceares 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLDWD

Head-to-head

Llanes 2–2–2 UC Ceares (6 last)

Llanes0-0UC Ceares
Llanes0-1UC Ceares
UC Ceares1-2Llanes
UC Ceares1-0Llanes
Llanes1-1UC Ceares
UC Ceares1-2Llanes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Llanes 1467 · UC Ceares 1478

	Llanes	Draw	UC Ceares
Our model	45%	30%	25%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Llanes	UC Ceares
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2	1.2 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:58 +19’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Llanes 2–2–2 UC Ceares

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/08/26 Spain Copa Federacion	Llanes	0-0 HT 0-0	UC Ceares
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Llanes	0-1	UC Ceares
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	1-2 HT 0-0	Llanes
03/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	1-0	Llanes
15/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 2	Llanes	1-1	UC Ceares
12/02/23 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	1-2 HT 0-0	Llanes

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Covadonga	10	7	2	1	26	11	23
2	Sporting Gijon B	10	6	3	1	17	9	21
3	Lealtad	10	6	2	2	14	4	20
4	Condal	10	5	5	0	13	4	20
5	Caudal	10	5	3	2	13	10	18
6	Gijon Industrial	10	5	2	3	16	11	17
7	Mosconia	10	4	4	2	16	14	16
8	El San Martin	10	4	3	3	13	14	15
9	Praviano	10	4	2	4	21	15	14
10	UP Langreo	10	3	3	4	11	13	12
11	Siero	10	4	0	6	11	14	12
12	CD Colunga	10	3	3	4	17	24	12
13	Aviles Stadium CF	10	3	2	5	8	13	11
14	Llanes	10	2	4	4	11	17	10
15	UC Ceares	10	2	3	5	12	14	9
16	Oviedo Astur	10	0	6	4	9	15	6
17	L'Entregu CF	10	1	2	7	5	18	5
18	Andes CF	10	0	3	7	8	21	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Llanes	UC Ceares
Caudal	2-1 W	1-2 L
Oviedo Astur	1-0 W	0-0 D
UP Langreo	0-1 L	2-1 W
Andes CF	1-1 D	3-0 W
Condal	1-1 D	0-0 D
Gijon Industrial	2-2 D	0-1 L
Mosconia	1-5 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Llanes

LLDDDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
01/11	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
24/10	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
18/10	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
04/10	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/09	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/09	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-5	–	–	L

UC Ceares

WLLLLDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
01/11	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
25/10	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
18/10	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
10/10	Mosconia Spain Tercera Group 2	0-2	2-2	0	3	D
03/10	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
26/09	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-2	2	9	L
20/09	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	3-4	1	5	L
13/09	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
06/09	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	2-1	2-1	1	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Llanes vs UC Ceares?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Llanes win (46%). Probabilities: Llanes 46%, draw 29%, UC Ceares 26%.

How many goals are expected in Llanes vs UC Ceares?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Llanes 1.38 · UC Ceares 0.97), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Llanes vs UC Ceares?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.