Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 22/09, 02:30

Prediction: Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente del Valle

Team pages: Barcelona Guayaquil · Independiente del Valle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Barcelona Guayaquil1.2

Independiente del Valle1.24

1X2

34% 29% 36%

Barcelona Guayaquil Draw Independiente del Valle

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona Guayaquil 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWLWDD

Independiente del Valle 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDLWW

Head-to-head

Barcelona Guayaquil 1–1–4 Independiente del Valle (6 last)

Barcelona Guayaquil2-1Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle1-0Barcelona Guayaquil
Independiente del Valle1-0Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil0-3Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Independiente del Valle2-1Barcelona Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona Guayaquil 1458 · Independiente del Valle 1615

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Draw	Independiente del Valle
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1458 vs 1615).
H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Independiente del Valle
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	3.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.30

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.81 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.30 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.58

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:10 +6’	3.00	3.30	2.30
17:05 +59’	2.70▼	3.30	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +35’	2.93	3.21	2.37
17:12 +101’	2.95▲	3.24▲	2.39▲
05:30 +494’	2.79▼	3.09▼	2.61▲
22:06 +6’	2.81▲	3.11▲	2.58▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil 1–1–4 Independiente del Valle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-1 HT 0-1	Independiente del Valle
10/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-0 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
21/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-0 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
06/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	0-3 HT 0-3	Independiente del Valle
06/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-1 HT 0-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
28/05/25 Copa Libertadores	Independiente del Valle	2-1 HT 0-1	Barcelona Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	73	33	74
2	Macara	31	16	6	9	43	34	54
3	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	30	14	9	7	51	27	51
4	SD Aucas	31	14	8	9	34	30	50
5	LDU Quito	30	13	7	10	31	24	46
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	30	11	11	8	32	25	44

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona Guayaquil	Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC	1-1 D	3-2 W
Orense	3-0 W	3-2 W
Macara	1-2 L	3-1 W
Leones FC	1-1 D	3-2 W
LDU Quito	0-1 L	2-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barcelona Guayaquil

LLDLDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
07/09	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
03/09	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
30/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
23/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
16/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
09/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
03/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
27/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
22/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	4	L

Independiente del Valle

WWWWWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-2	6	4	W
06/09	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	3-1	4	1	W
03/09	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
29/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
22/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
15/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	3-2	9	4	W
08/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
02/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
26/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
22/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente del Valle?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (36%). Probabilities: Barcelona Guayaquil 34%, draw 29%, Independiente del Valle 36%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente del Valle?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Barcelona Guayaquil 1.2 · Independiente del Valle 1.24), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente del Valle?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.