Football · Argentina Nacional B · 19/09, 22:00

Prediction: CA Guemes vs Ferrocarril Midland

Team pages: CA Guemes · Ferrocarril Midland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

CA Guemes0.94

Ferrocarril Midland1.08

1X2

30% 33% 37%

CA Guemes Draw Ferrocarril Midland

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Guemes 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDDDLL

Ferrocarril Midland 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWDLWLL

Head-to-head

CA Guemes 0–1 Ferrocarril Midland (1 last)

Ferrocarril Midland2-1CA Guemes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Guemes 1422 · Ferrocarril Midland 1523

	CA Guemes	Draw	Ferrocarril Midland
Our model	30%	33%	37%
Market	30%	33%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferrocarril Midland (rating 1422 vs 1523).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Guemes	Ferrocarril Midland
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.2	2.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X2.75

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.08

2 (0)1.73

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:16 +1’	3.10	2.75	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Guemes 0–0–1 Ferrocarril Midland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	Ferrocarril Midland	2-1 HT 1-0	CA Guemes

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	27	13	10	4	28	14	49
2	Club Atletico Temperley	28	13	10	5	33	23	49
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	28	14	7	7	42	34	49
4	CA Atlanta	29	15	3	11	34	28	48
5	Gimnasia y Tiro	29	12	9	8	31	26	45
6	Ferrocarril Midland	28	11	8	9	31	25	41
7	San Martin SJ	28	11	8	9	31	27	41
8	Deportivo Maipu	29	11	7	11	36	30	40
9	CA Colegiales	29	11	7	11	29	28	40
10	Atletico Rafaela	28	10	9	9	20	22	39
11	San Martin de Tucuman	28	8	12	8	27	26	36
12	Quilmes	29	9	8	12	28	24	35
13	Almagro	29	9	8	12	25	33	35
14	Agropecuario	28	8	9	11	25	31	33
15	Nueva Chicago	29	8	8	13	21	28	32
16	Patronato Parana	28	5	14	9	23	30	29
17	Chacarita Juniors	28	7	6	15	19	30	27
18	CA Guemes	28	5	8	15	22	46	23

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Guemes	Ferrocarril Midland
Gimnasia Jujuy	1-2 L	1-1 D
San Martin SJ	0-2 L	2-3 L
Nueva Chicago	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ferrocarril Midland (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Guemes

LLLLDDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
06/09	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-3	7	1	L
30/08	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
24/08	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
15/08	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
08/08	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
26/07	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
12/07	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
04/07	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	3	3	L

Ferrocarril Midland

DWWDWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-3	8	3	L
03/09	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
29/08	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
23/08	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
14/08	Acassuso Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
08/08	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
01/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
26/07	Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
12/07	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/07	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-1	9	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Guemes vs Ferrocarril Midland?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ferrocarril Midland win (37%). Probabilities: CA Guemes 30%, draw 33%, Ferrocarril Midland 37%.

How many goals are expected in CA Guemes vs Ferrocarril Midland?

The model expects 2.02 goals (CA Guemes 0.94 · Ferrocarril Midland 1.08), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Guemes vs Ferrocarril Midland?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.