Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 04/10, 19:45
Prediction: Sarmiento vs River Plate
Team pages: Sarmiento · River Plate
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
Sarmiento0.84
River Plate1.63
1X2
Sarmiento
Draw
River Plate
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sarmiento
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
River Plate
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarmiento
2–1–3
River Plate
(6 last)
- River Plate2-0Sarmiento
- River Plate0-1Sarmiento
- Sarmiento1-1River Plate
- River Plate1-0Sarmiento
- Sarmiento0-2River Plate
- River Plate1-2Sarmiento
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarmiento 1512 · River Plate 1500
| Sarmiento | Draw | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| Market | 18% | 28% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours River Plate: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarmiento | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 44/22/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.1 | 1.9 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento 2–1–3 River Plate
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento |
| 13/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sarmiento |
| 06/04/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 1-1 HT 1-1 | River Plate |
| 28/07/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 20/03/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 0-2 HT 0-1 | River Plate |
| 01/08/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Sarmiento |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Independiente Rivadavia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | Gimnasia LP | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| 5 | Belgrano | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Huracan | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| 7 | Sarmiento | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | River Plate | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 9 | Atlético Tucumán | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 10 | CA Tigre | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 12 |
| 11 | Barracas Central | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| 12 | Banfield | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 9 |
| 13 | CA Aldosivi | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 8 |
| 14 | Racing Club | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarmiento | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Huracan | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Atlético Tucumán | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Banfield | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Argentinos Jrs | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: River Plate (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/09 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/07 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 9 | L |
River Plate
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 24/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 30/07 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/07 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarmiento vs River Plate?
According to our model, the most likely result is an River Plate win (54%). Probabilities: Sarmiento 18%, draw 28%, River Plate 54%.
How many goals are expected in Sarmiento vs River Plate?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Sarmiento 0.84 · River Plate 1.63), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento vs River Plate?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.