Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 13/09, 18:00

Prediction: El Palmar CF Estrella Grana vs Aguilas B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

El Palmar CF Estrella Grana1.18

Aguilas B1.27

1X2

34% 29% 38%

El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Draw Aguilas B

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

El Palmar CF Estrella Grana 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLLLDL

Aguilas B 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWDD

Head-to-head

El Palmar CF Estrella Grana 1–2–1 Aguilas B (4 last)

Aguilas B2-1El Palmar CF Estrella Grana
El Palmar CF Estrella Grana0-0Aguilas B
El Palmar CF Estrella Grana1-1Aguilas B
Aguilas B2-3El Palmar CF Estrella Grana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · El Palmar CF Estrella Grana 1447 · Aguilas B 1568

	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	Draw	Aguilas B
Our model	33%	30%	37%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aguilas B (rating 1447 vs 1568).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	Aguilas B
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/67/22%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	1.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.20

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:37 +8’	2.63	3.20	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · El Palmar CF Estrella Grana 1–2–1 Aguilas B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	2-1 HT 1-1	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana
20/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	0-0 HT 0-0	Aguilas B
06/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	1-1 HT 0-1	Aguilas B
24/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	2-3 HT 0-2	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Molinense CF	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
2	At. Pulpileno	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	AD Mar Menor San Javier	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
4	Santomera	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	Cotillas CD	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	SFC Minerva	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Bala Azul	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Olimpico Totana	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Aguilas B	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Alcantarilla FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Bullas Deportivo	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	UD Los Garres	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Atletico Santa Cruz	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
14	Mazarron	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	UCAM Murcia CF B	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	Deportivo Maritimo	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	FC Cartagena B	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
18	CD Algar	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	Aguilas B
UCAM Murcia CF B	0-4 L	2-2 D
Mazarron	1-4 L	3-2 W
Deportivo Maritimo	1-0 W	2-1 W
Union Molinense CF	0-3 L	2-1 W
Atletico Santa Cruz	1-3 L	1-2 L
Santomera	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aguilas B (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

El Palmar CF Estrella Grana

WLLWDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-3	8	1	L
03/05	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
25/04	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
19/04	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
12/04	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-4	–	–	L
02/04	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
29/03	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
22/03	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	0-3	0	4	L
15/03	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-3	2	4	L
08/03	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	2	8	W

Aguilas B

WWWLWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
10/05	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
03/05	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-2	1	10	W
25/04	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-1	11	4	W
19/04	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
11/04	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-1	–	–	W
01/04	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
28/03	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/03	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/03	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	4-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in El Palmar CF Estrella Grana vs Aguilas B?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aguilas B win (38%). Probabilities: El Palmar CF Estrella Grana 34%, draw 29%, Aguilas B 38%.

How many goals are expected in El Palmar CF Estrella Grana vs Aguilas B?

The model expects 2.45 goals (El Palmar CF Estrella Grana 1.18 · Aguilas B 1.27), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in El Palmar CF Estrella Grana vs Aguilas B?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.