Football · South Korea K4 League · 12/09, 09:00

Prediction: Sejong SA vs Jinju Citizen FC

Team pages: Sejong SA · Jinju Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Sejong SA1.34

Jinju Citizen FC1.99

1X2

25% 24% 52%

Sejong SA Draw Jinju Citizen FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sejong SA 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLWLLW

Jinju Citizen FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Sejong SA 0–2–2 Jinju Citizen FC (4 last)

Jinju Citizen FC1-1Sejong SA
Jinju Citizen FC4-0Sejong SA
Sejong SA0-0Jinju Citizen FC
Jinju Citizen FC2-1Sejong SA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sejong SA 1488 · Jinju Citizen FC 1552

	Sejong SA	Draw	Jinju Citizen FC
Our model	25%	24%	52%
Market	25%	23%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jinju Citizen FC (rating 1488 vs 1552).
H2H favours Jinju Citizen FC: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sejong SA	Jinju Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.80

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.08 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:23 +6’	3.60	3.80	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:19 +10’	4.08	3.70	1.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sejong SA 0–2–2 Jinju Citizen FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 South Korea Cup	Jinju Citizen FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Sejong SA
03/05/26 South Korea K4 League	Jinju Citizen FC	4-0 HT 1-0	Sejong SA
15/11/25 South Korea K4 League	Sejong SA	0-0 HT 0-0	Jinju Citizen FC
06/07/25 South Korea K4 League	Jinju Citizen FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Sejong SA

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sejong SA	Jinju Citizen FC
Seosan Pioneer	2-1 W	1-0 W
Jecheon Citizen	4-5 L	2-0 W
Haman	0-1 L	4-1 W
Jincheon HR	4-1 W	2-6 L
Pyeongchang United	1-3 L	4-0 W
Namyangju FC	3-0 W	1-2 L
Geumsan Insam	3-2 W	1-1 D
Gijang United	0-1 L	4-1 W
Pyeongtaek Citizen FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Jinju Citizen FC (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sejong SA

LDLWWLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
23/08	Jecheon Citizen South Korea K4 League	2-2	4-5	8	0	L
26/07	Haman South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
11/07	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
28/06	Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
30/05	Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League	2-0	3-0	0	1	W
23/05	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	1-2	3-2	8	3	W
17/05	Gijang United South Korea K4 League	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
10/05	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	2-0	2-2	4	8	D
03/05	Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	0-1	0-4	4	2	L

Jinju Citizen FC

DWLWWWWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League	0-2	1-2	8	4	L
30/08	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Gijang United South Korea K4 League	1-1	4-1	4	3	W
26/07	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
27/06	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
06/06	Jecheon Citizen South Korea K4 League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/05	Haman South Korea K4 League	2-0	4-1	6	7	W
23/05	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	1-3	2-6	5	2	L
16/05	Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League	3-0	4-0	1	2	W
10/05	Geoje Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	0-2	2-2	3	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sejong SA vs Jinju Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jinju Citizen FC win (52%). Probabilities: Sejong SA 25%, draw 24%, Jinju Citizen FC 52%.

How many goals are expected in Sejong SA vs Jinju Citizen FC?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Sejong SA 1.34 · Jinju Citizen FC 1.99), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sejong SA vs Jinju Citizen FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.