Football · Kenya Premier League · 11/09, 14:00
Prediction: Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.84Total
Tusker0.89
Kakamega Homeboyz0.96
1X2
Tusker
Draw
Kakamega Homeboyz
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Tusker
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Kakamega Homeboyz
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tusker
2–3–1
Kakamega Homeboyz
(6 last)
- Tusker2-0Kakamega Homeboyz
- Kakamega Homeboyz1-1Tusker
- Kakamega Homeboyz0-0Tusker
- Tusker2-2Kakamega Homeboyz
- Tusker1-0Kakamega Homeboyz
- Kakamega Homeboyz1-0Tusker
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tusker 1501 · Kakamega Homeboyz 1458
| Tusker | Draw | Kakamega Homeboyz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 35% | 34% |
| Market | 32% | 32% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.84 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tusker (rating 1501 vs 1458).
- H2H favours Tusker: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tusker | Kakamega Homeboyz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/63/25% | 38/13/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 1.5 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tusker 2–3–1 Kakamega Homeboyz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Kakamega Homeboyz |
| 02/11/25 Kenya Premier League | Kakamega Homeboyz | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Tusker |
| 22/06/25 Kenya Premier League | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tusker |
| 22/09/24 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Kakamega Homeboyz |
| 23/06/24 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kakamega Homeboyz |
| 30/03/24 Kenya Cup | Kakamega Homeboyz | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tusker |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3K FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | APS Bomet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bandari FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | KCB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Administration Police FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mara Sugar FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mathare United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Migori Youth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mombasa United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Muranga Seal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nairobi United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Posta Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shabana FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tusker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ulinzi Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tusker | Kakamega Homeboyz |
|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Gor Mahia | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Administration Police FC | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| AFC Leopards | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Kakamega Homeboyz (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tusker
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/05 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/05 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 14/04 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
Kakamega Homeboyz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/04 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/04 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kakamega Homeboyz win (35%). Probabilities: Tusker 31%, draw 33%, Kakamega Homeboyz 35%.
How many goals are expected in Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz?
The model expects 1.84 goals (Tusker 0.89 · Kakamega Homeboyz 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tusker vs Kakamega Homeboyz?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.