Football · Kenya Premier League · 11/09, 14:00

Prediction: Nairobi United vs APS Bomet

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Nairobi United1.23

APS Bomet0.76

1X2

46% 32% 22%

Nairobi United Draw APS Bomet

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Nairobi United 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLDDW

APS Bomet 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Nairobi United 1–1–1 APS Bomet (3 last)

APS Bomet0-0Nairobi United
Nairobi United1-2APS Bomet
Nairobi United1-0APS Bomet

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nairobi United 1535 · APS Bomet 1601

	Nairobi United	Draw	APS Bomet
Our model	46%	32%	22%
Market	47%	31%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APS Bomet (rating 1535 vs 1601).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nairobi United	APS Bomet
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.3 / 0.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.4 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	44/56/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X2.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:24 +3’	1.91	2.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nairobi United 1–1–1 APS Bomet

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Kenya Premier League	APS Bomet	0-0 HT 0-0	Nairobi United
04/02/26 Kenya Premier League	Nairobi United	1-2 HT 0-1	APS Bomet
17/11/24 Kenya Super League	Nairobi United	1-0 HT 1-0	APS Bomet

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	3K FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bandari FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gor Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kakamega Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Administration Police FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mara Sugar FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mombasa United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Muranga Seal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Posta Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shabana FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nairobi United	APS Bomet
Posta Rangers	2-2 D	3-0 W
Tusker	1-0 W	1-1 D
Mathare United	2-1 W	2-0 W
Mara Sugar FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: APS Bomet (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nairobi United

DWDWWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/05	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
16/05	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
06/05	Tusker Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
25/04	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
19/04	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	3-2	4-2	3	2	W
08/04	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	1-2	2-2	0	2	D
05/04	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
01/04	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D

APS Bomet

DDWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Tusker Kenya Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
20/05	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
10/05	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
06/05	KCB Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
26/04	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
19/04	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
04/04	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
28/03	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
21/03	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nairobi United vs APS Bomet?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nairobi United win (46%). Probabilities: Nairobi United 46%, draw 32%, APS Bomet 22%.

How many goals are expected in Nairobi United vs APS Bomet?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Nairobi United 1.23 · APS Bomet 0.76), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Nairobi United vs APS Bomet?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.