Football · Kenya Premier League · 11/09, 14:00
Prediction: Gor Mahia vs Bandari FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.81Total
Gor Mahia1.3
Bandari FC0.51
1X2
Gor Mahia
Draw
Bandari FC
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
1-0 20%
Recent form · 10 last
Gor Mahia
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Bandari FC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gor Mahia
2–2–2
Bandari FC
(6 last)
- Gor Mahia0-0Bandari FC
- Bandari FC1-1Gor Mahia
- Gor Mahia2-0Bandari FC
- Bandari FC2-0Gor Mahia
- Bandari FC1-0Gor Mahia
- Gor Mahia1-0Bandari FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gor Mahia 1501 · Bandari FC 1521
| Gor Mahia | Draw | Bandari FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 31% | 14% |
| Market | 57% | 28% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.81 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gor Mahia | Bandari FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/67/33% | 11/56/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.3 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gor Mahia 2–2–2 Bandari FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Bandari FC |
| 12/12/25 Kenya Premier League | Bandari FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gor Mahia |
| 15/03/25 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Bandari FC |
| 06/11/24 Kenya Premier League | Bandari FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Gor Mahia |
| 09/03/24 Kenya Premier League | Bandari FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gor Mahia |
| 22/12/23 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bandari FC |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3K FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | APS Bomet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bandari FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | KCB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Administration Police FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mara Sugar FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mathare United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Migori Youth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mombasa United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Muranga Seal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nairobi United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Posta Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shabana FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tusker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ulinzi Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gor Mahia | Bandari FC |
|---|---|---|
| Kakamega Homeboyz | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Tusker | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gor Mahia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 27/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/04 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 21/03 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Bandari FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gor Mahia vs Bandari FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gor Mahia win (56%). Probabilities: Gor Mahia 56%, draw 29%, Bandari FC 15%.
How many goals are expected in Gor Mahia vs Bandari FC?
The model expects 1.81 goals (Gor Mahia 1.3 · Bandari FC 0.51), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Gor Mahia vs Bandari FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.