Football · Kenya Premier League · 11/09, 14:00
Prediction: AFC Leopards vs Shabana FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
AFC Leopards1.37
Shabana FC0.87
1X2
AFC Leopards
Draw
Shabana FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
AFC Leopards
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Shabana FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AFC Leopards
3–1–2
Shabana FC
(6 last)
- AFC Leopards5-1Shabana FC
- Shabana FC1-2AFC Leopards
- AFC Leopards1-1Shabana FC
- Shabana FC2-1AFC Leopards
- Shabana FC4-3AFC Leopards
- Shabana FC0-1AFC Leopards
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AFC Leopards 1538 · Shabana FC 1455
| AFC Leopards | Draw | Shabana FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Market | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Leopards (rating 1538 vs 1455).
- H2H favours AFC Leopards: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AFC Leopards | Shabana FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.5 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Leopards 3–1–2 Shabana FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Kenya Premier League | AFC Leopards | 5-1 HT 2-0 | Shabana FC |
| 29/10/25 Kenya Premier League | Shabana FC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | AFC Leopards |
| 16/03/25 Kenya Premier League | AFC Leopards | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Shabana FC |
| 27/11/24 Kenya Premier League | Shabana FC | 2-1 HT 2-1 | AFC Leopards |
| 15/06/24 Kenya Premier League | Shabana FC | 4-3 | AFC Leopards |
| 31/03/24 Kenya Cup | Shabana FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | AFC Leopards |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3K FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | APS Bomet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bandari FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | KCB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Administration Police FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mara Sugar FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mathare United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Migori Youth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mombasa United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Muranga Seal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nairobi United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Posta Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shabana FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tusker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ulinzi Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AFC Leopards | Shabana FC |
|---|---|---|
| Bidco United | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Kakamega Homeboyz | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Ulinzi Stars | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Mara Sugar FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Gor Mahia | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Administration Police FC | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Muranga Seal | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: AFC Leopards (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AFC Leopards
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/03 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/03 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Shabana FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 05/04 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 29/03 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AFC Leopards vs Shabana FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Leopards win (47%). Probabilities: AFC Leopards 47%, draw 31%, Shabana FC 22%.
How many goals are expected in AFC Leopards vs Shabana FC?
The model expects 2.25 goals (AFC Leopards 1.37 · Shabana FC 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in AFC Leopards vs Shabana FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.