Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 15/09, 02:00
Prediction: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Orense
Team pages: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador · Orense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2.1
Orense0.88
1X2
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Draw
Orense
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Orense
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
2–3–1
Orense
(6 last)
- Orense1-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador0-0Orense
- Orense2-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Orense1-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-0Orense
- Orense2-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1586 · Orense 1461
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Draw | Orense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1586 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Orense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.1 | 1.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 2–3–1 Orense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 29/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Orense |
| 25/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 09/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 20/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Orense |
| 14/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 29 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 70 | 31 | 71 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 50 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | Macara | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 33 | 48 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 24 | 43 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Libertad | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 33 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 35 | 45 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 29 | 9 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 42 | 29 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 30 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 42 | 21 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Orense |
|---|---|---|
| Delfin SC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| SD Aucas | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Independiente del Valle | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Macara | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Guayaquil City | 0-0 D | 4-3 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 03/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 22/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Orense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-2 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/09 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 23/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Orense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (64%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 64%, draw 22%, Orense 13%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Orense?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 2.1 · Orense 0.88), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Orense?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.