Football · Guatemala Primera Division · 04/10, 19:00

Prediction: Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa vs Aguacatan FC

Team pages: Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa · Aguacatan FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa1.52

Aguacatan FC0.89

1X2

51% 28% 21%

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa Draw Aguacatan FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWLDL

Aguacatan FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDDWL

Head-to-head

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 0–1 Aguacatan FC (1 last)

Aguacatan FC2-0Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 1507 · Aguacatan FC 1552

	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa	Draw	Aguacatan FC
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	51%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aguacatan FC (rating 1507 vs 1552).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa	Aguacatan FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	– / –
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	//%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.5	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.8 / 0.5	– / –

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.30

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:13 +3’	1.75	3.30	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 0–0–1 Aguacatan FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Guatemala Primera Division	Aguacatan FC	2-0	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

Standings · Guatemala Primera Division · Primera Division 26/27, Apertura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huehuetecos FC	13	8	1	4	24	10	25
2	Aguacatan FC	13	7	3	3	23	13	24
3	Juventud Copalera	13	6	2	5	18	16	20
4	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa	13	5	4	4	15	13	19
5	Deportivo Iztapa	13	5	4	4	19	19	19
6	Quiche FC	13	5	3	5	10	13	18
7	Deportivo Gomerano	13	5	2	6	14	15	17
8	Coatepeque FC	12	4	2	6	11	15	14
9	Chichicasteco FC	12	3	3	6	14	22	12
10	CSD Amatitlan	13	4	0	9	11	23	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa	Aguacatan FC
CSD Amatitlan	0-2 L	5-0 W
Huehuetecos FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Quiche FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Deportivo Gomerano	3-0 W	1-0 W
Juventud Copalera	1-0 W	3-2 W
Deportivo Iztapa	1-1 D	2-2 D
Chichicasteco FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Coatepeque FC	1-1 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

WLDWDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	0-2	6	7	L
27/09	Huehuetecos FC Guatemala Primera Division	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
20/09	Quiche FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Deportivo Gomerano Guatemala Primera Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
06/09	Juventud Copalera Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
30/08	Deportivo Iztapa Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	Chichicasteco FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Coatepeque FC Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	11	D
16/08	Aguacatan FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Primera Division	–	2-0	–	–	W

Aguacatan FC

WWDWWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Huehuetecos FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
27/09	Deportivo Gomerano Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/09	Deportivo Iztapa Guatemala Primera Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/09	Coatepeque FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
06/09	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Primera Division	–	5-0	–	–	W
30/08	Quiche FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
23/08	Juventud Copalera Guatemala Primera Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Chichicasteco FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa Guatemala Primera Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/08	Huehuetecos FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa vs Aguacatan FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa win (51%). Probabilities: Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 51%, draw 28%, Aguacatan FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa vs Aguacatan FC?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 1.52 · Aguacatan FC 0.89), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa vs Aguacatan FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.