Football · Colombia Primera A · 15/10, 01:30

Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Jaguares de Cordoba

Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Jaguares de Cordoba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Independiente Santa Fe2

Jaguares de Cordoba0.69

1X2

67% 22% 11%

Independiente Santa Fe Draw Jaguares de Cordoba

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Santa Fe 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWDWWLWW

Jaguares de Cordoba 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWDDDLLL

Head-to-head

Independiente Santa Fe 2–1–3 Jaguares de Cordoba (6 last)

Jaguares de Cordoba3-1Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe3-0Jaguares de Cordoba
Jaguares de Cordoba1-0Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe1-0Jaguares de Cordoba
Jaguares de Cordoba2-2Independiente Santa Fe
Jaguares de Cordoba2-1Independiente Santa Fe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe 1541 · Jaguares de Cordoba 1443

	Independiente Santa Fe	Draw	Jaguares de Cordoba
Our model	67%	22%	11%
Market	67%	22%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (rating 1541 vs 1443).
H2H favours Jaguares de Cordoba: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Santa Fe	Jaguares de Cordoba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.4	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.20

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:02 +14’	1.38	4.20	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 2–1–3 Jaguares de Cordoba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	3-1 HT 1-0	Independiente Santa Fe
15/11/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	3-0 HT 1-0	Jaguares de Cordoba
29/04/24 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	1-0 HT 1-0	Independiente Santa Fe
20/07/23 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-0 HT 0-0	Jaguares de Cordoba
27/01/23 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	2-2 HT 2-2	Independiente Santa Fe
17/10/22 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	2-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Santa Fe

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	12	8	3	1	24	7	27
2	Deportivo Cali	13	7	4	2	20	9	25
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	11	6	5	0	20	10	23
5	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	19	12	22
6	Independiente Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19	12	22
7	Independiente Medellin	12	6	2	4	19	16	20
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15	13	20
9	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16	16	16
10	Aguilas Doradas	12	3	6	3	16	17	15
11	Cucuta Deportivo	12	4	3	5	15	19	15
12	Llaneros	13	4	2	7	15	17	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	2	8	4	16	20	14
14	Boyaca Chico	11	3	3	5	10	18	12
15	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14	26	12
16	Fortaleza CEIF	13	1	8	4	14	19	11
17	Junior	12	2	4	6	18	22	10
18	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	9	18	9
19	Deportivo Pereira	12	1	6	5	7	17	9
20	Jaguares de Cordoba	11	1	4	6	11	20	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Santa Fe	Jaguares de Cordoba
Independiente Medellin	1-0 W	1-2 L
Alianza	4-1 W	1-2 L
Fortaleza CEIF	2-2 D	2-2 D
Junior	1-1 D	3-3 D
America de Cali	0-0 D	2-2 D
Boyaca Chico	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Santa Fe

WDDWDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
29/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	2	11	W
23/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
19/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-1	6	5	W
12/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	4	4	D
03/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	7	8	W
30/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
08/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	2	2	W

Jaguares de Cordoba

LLDWDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	5	9	L
27/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
23/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
06/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-3	5	6	D
29/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	3	7	D
21/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
10/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
06/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
02/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-3	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Jaguares de Cordoba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (67%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 67%, draw 22%, Jaguares de Cordoba 11%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Jaguares de Cordoba?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 2 · Jaguares de Cordoba 0.69), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Jaguares de Cordoba?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.