Football · Angola Girabola · 20/09, 16:00

Prediction: 1º de Maio de Benguela vs CD Lunda Sul

Team pages: 1º de Maio de Benguela · CD Lunda Sul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

1º de Maio de Benguela1.14

CD Lunda Sul0.82

1X2

42% 32% 25%

1º de Maio de Benguela Draw CD Lunda Sul

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

1º de Maio de Benguela 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDDLWL

CD Lunda Sul 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDWDDDLW

Head-to-head

1º de Maio de Benguela 2–0 CD Lunda Sul (2 last)

CD Lunda Sul0-11º de Maio de Benguela
1º de Maio de Benguela1-0CD Lunda Sul

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 1º de Maio de Benguela 1529 · CD Lunda Sul 1480

	1º de Maio de Benguela	Draw	CD Lunda Sul
Our model	42%	33%	25%
Market	43%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours 1º de Maio de Benguela (rating 1529 vs 1480).
H2H favours 1º de Maio de Benguela: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	1º de Maio de Benguela	CD Lunda Sul
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/29/14%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.88

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
03:44 +14’	2.10	2.88	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 1º de Maio de Benguela 2–0–0 CD Lunda Sul

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Angola Girabola	CD Lunda Sul	0-1	1º de Maio de Benguela
07/12/25 Angola Girabola	1º de Maio de Benguela	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Lunda Sul

Standings · Angola Girabola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wiliete SC	4	4	0	0	7	1	12
2	Primeiro de Agosto	4	3	1	0	6	3	10
3	FC Bravos do Maquis	4	3	0	1	5	1	9
4	GD Interclube	4	3	0	1	6	3	9
5	Petro Luanda	3	2	1	0	5	0	7
6	Recreativo do Libolo	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
7	Desportivo da Huila	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
8	CD Lunda Sul	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
9	CR Da Caala	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
10	FC Luanda	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
11	1º de Maio de Benguela	4	1	1	2	5	5	4
12	Sagrada Esperanca	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
13	Sao Salvador	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
14	Kabuscorp	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
15	FC Cabinda	4	0	1	3	3	8	1
16	Academica Do Lobito	4	0	0	4	0	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	1º de Maio de Benguela	CD Lunda Sul
Academica Do Lobito	2-0 W	1-1 D
Kabuscorp	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sagrada Esperanca	1-1 D	2-1 W
Petro Luanda	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

1º de Maio de Benguela

WWWDDDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Recreativo do Libolo Angola Girabola	–	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Academica Do Lobito Angola Girabola	1-0	2-0	6	9	W
27/08	Primeiro de Agosto Angola Girabola	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/08	Kabuscorp Angola Girabola	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
24/05	Sagrada Esperanca Angola Girabola	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/05	Desportivo da Huila Angola Girabola	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
16/05	Petro Luanda Angola Girabola	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/05	Academica Do Lobito Angola Girabola	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
06/05	RSD Guelson FC Angola Girabola	3-1	4-1	1	4	W
02/05	CD Lunda Sul Angola Girabola	–	1-0	–	–	W

CD Lunda Sul

LLDDWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Sagrada Esperanca Angola Girabola	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	CR Da Caala Angola Girabola	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Kabuscorp Angola Girabola	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
21/08	Petro Luanda Angola Girabola	–	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Wiliete SC Angola Girabola	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/05	FC Bravos do Maquis Angola Girabola	–	1-0	–	–	W
17/05	Sagrada Esperanca Angola Girabola	–	1-1	–	–	D
14/05	Academica Do Lobito Angola Girabola	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/05	Petro Luanda Angola Girabola	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
02/05	1º de Maio de Benguela Angola Girabola	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 1º de Maio de Benguela vs CD Lunda Sul?

According to our model, the most likely result is a 1º de Maio de Benguela win (42%). Probabilities: 1º de Maio de Benguela 42%, draw 32%, CD Lunda Sul 25%.

How many goals are expected in 1º de Maio de Benguela vs CD Lunda Sul?

The model expects 1.96 goals (1º de Maio de Benguela 1.14 · CD Lunda Sul 0.82), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in 1º de Maio de Benguela vs CD Lunda Sul?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.