Football · Peru Liga 1 · 12/09, 22:00

Prediction: AD Tarma vs Cienciano

Team pages: AD Tarma · Cienciano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

AD Tarma1.87

Cienciano1.36

1X2

48% 26% 26%

AD Tarma Draw Cienciano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Tarma 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDDLL

Cienciano 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLDLLW

Head-to-head

AD Tarma 3–2–1 Cienciano (6 last)

Cienciano2-3AD Tarma
Cienciano3-2AD Tarma
AD Tarma1-0Cienciano
AD Tarma1-1Cienciano
Cienciano2-2AD Tarma
Cienciano0-1AD Tarma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Tarma 1432 · Cienciano 1492

	AD Tarma	Draw	Cienciano
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cienciano (rating 1432 vs 1492).
H2H favours AD Tarma: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Tarma	Cienciano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.8	3.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:53 +24’	1.95	3.30	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Tarma 3–2–1 Cienciano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/07/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Cienciano	2-3 HT 0-1	AD Tarma
04/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	3-2 HT 2-2	AD Tarma
19/07/25 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	1-0 HT 0-0	Cienciano
05/03/25 Copa Sudamericana	AD Tarma	1-1 HT 0-0	Cienciano
10/02/25 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	2-2 HT 0-0	AD Tarma
22/07/24 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	0-1 HT 0-0	AD Tarma

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	24	15	7	2	40	15	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	25	13	7	5	41	26	46
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	24	12	6	6	31	21	42
4	Cusco FC	25	13	3	9	38	36	42
5	CD Los Chankas	24	12	5	7	34	37	41
6	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
7	FBC Melgar	24	11	6	7	40	28	39
8	Alianza Atletico	25	10	7	8	37	31	37
9	Sport Boys	25	9	7	9	27	25	34
10	Comerciantes Unidos	25	7	9	9	34	35	30
11	Sporting Cristal	24	8	5	11	38	38	29
12	Atletico Grau	24	8	5	11	20	23	29
13	Sport Huancayo	25	8	5	12	33	42	29
14	Juan Pablo II College	24	7	6	11	35	50	27
15	Deportivo Moquegua	25	6	7	12	23	35	25
16	FC Cajamarca	25	6	6	13	38	49	24
17	AD Tarma	24	5	7	12	27	36	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	25	4	8	13	29	45	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Tarma	Cienciano
Sport Huancayo	1-3 L	2-2 D
Juan Pablo II College	1-5 L	0-2 L
Alianza Atletico	1-1 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1 L	0-0 D
Sport Boys	0-2 L	1-5 L
Universitario de Deportes	1-2 L	2-0 W
Cusco FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Sporting Cristal	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 7 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Cienciano (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Tarma

WLLLLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-3	9	10	L
22/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-5	6	0	L
15/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	15	9	D
08/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
02/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
25/07	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
18/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
30/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	12	5	L
24/05	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-2	0	9	L
17/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	3	6	W

Cienciano

DWLLWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	3-2	5-2	3	2	W
31/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-3	1-5	8	2	L
17/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
06/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
25/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
18/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
01/06	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
24/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Tarma vs Cienciano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Tarma win (48%). Probabilities: AD Tarma 48%, draw 26%, Cienciano 26%.

How many goals are expected in AD Tarma vs Cienciano?

The model expects 3.23 goals (AD Tarma 1.87 · Cienciano 1.36), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Tarma vs Cienciano?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.