Football · Spain La Liga · 16/09, 21:30

Prediction: Levante vs Athletic Bilbao

Team pages: Levante · Athletic Bilbao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Levante1.32

Athletic Bilbao1.59

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Levante Draw Athletic Bilbao

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Levante 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWLLDW

Athletic Bilbao 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLLLWW

Head-to-head

Levante 0–3–3 Athletic Bilbao (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao4-2Levante
Levante0-2Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao3-1Levante
Levante0-0Athletic Bilbao
Levante1-1Athletic Bilbao
Levante1-1Athletic Bilbao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Levante 1527 · Athletic Bilbao 1543

	Levante	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	30%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Athletic Bilbao: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Levante	Athletic Bilbao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	3.5 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +1’	3.10	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Levante 0–3–3 Athletic Bilbao

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	4-2 HT 2-0	Levante
29/11/25 Spain La Liga	Levante	0-2 HT 0-2	Athletic Bilbao
07/03/22 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	3-1 HT 0-0	Levante
19/11/21 Spain La Liga	Levante	0-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
04/03/21 Spain Copa del Rey	Levante	1-1 HT 1-1	Athletic Bilbao
26/02/21 Spain La Liga	Levante	1-1 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao

Standings · Spain La Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	17	2	12
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
3	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
4	Deportivo A Coruna	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
5	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
6	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
7	Atletico Madrid	4	2	1	1	7	6	7
8	Athletic Bilbao	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
8	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
10	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Racing Santander	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
12	Rayo Vallecano	4	1	1	2	7	10	4
13	Real Sociedad	4	1	1	2	3	6	4
14	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
15	Getafe	3	1	0	2	1	4	3
16	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	6	8	2
17	Celta Vigo	4	0	2	2	1	4	2
18	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
19	Malaga	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
20	Valencia	4	0	1	3	1	9	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Levante	Athletic Bilbao
Espanyol	0-3 L	0-2 L
Celta Vigo	3-2 W	2-0 W
Sevilla	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Levante

WDLWWWLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	2-2	5-2	5	2	W
24/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
16/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
23/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
17/05	Mallorca Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
12/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
08/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	15	3	W
02/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-1	1-5	3	4	L
27/04	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
23/04	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W

Athletic Bilbao

LWLLDLLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
30/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
02/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	4-2	7	6	W
25/04	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-0	2-3	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Levante vs Athletic Bilbao?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao win (43%). Probabilities: Levante 30%, draw 27%, Athletic Bilbao 43%.

How many goals are expected in Levante vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Levante 1.32 · Athletic Bilbao 1.59), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Levante vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.