Football · Switzerland Super League · 22/11, 14:00

Prediction: FC Zurich vs St Gallen

Team pages: FC Zurich · St Gallen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

FC Zurich1.47

St Gallen2.02

1X2

27% 23% 50%

FC Zurich Draw St Gallen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Zurich 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDWWWD

St Gallen 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWLWW

Head-to-head

FC Zurich 2–4 St Gallen (6 last)

St Gallen2-1FC Zurich
St Gallen2-1FC Zurich
St Gallen1-2FC Zurich
FC Zurich3-1St Gallen
St Gallen3-2FC Zurich
FC Zurich1-2St Gallen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Zurich 1538 · St Gallen 1541

	FC Zurich	Draw	St Gallen
Our model	27%	23%	50%
Market	27%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours St Gallen: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Zurich	St Gallen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	2.7 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.90

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.55
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.12 ★
2	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:49 +24’	3.40	3.90	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +7’	3.55	4.12	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Zurich 2–0–4 St Gallen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Switzerland Super League	St Gallen	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Zurich
06/04/26 Switzerland Super League	St Gallen	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Zurich
06/12/25 Switzerland Super League	St Gallen	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Zurich
27/09/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Zurich	3-1 HT 0-1	St Gallen
17/05/25 Switzerland Super League	St Gallen	3-2 HT 2-1	FC Zurich
09/02/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Zurich	1-2 HT 1-0	St Gallen

Standings · Switzerland Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugano	13	11	1	1	36	15	34
2	Young Boys	13	8	4	1	41	25	28
3	FC Sion	13	8	2	3	29	18	26
4	St Gallen	13	7	1	5	24	22	22
5	FC Zurich	13	6	3	4	25	26	21
6	Servette	13	5	2	6	17	16	17
7	Basel	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
8	FC Thun	13	4	2	7	27	37	14
9	Lucerne	13	3	4	6	21	28	13
10	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	16	29	11
11	FC Vaduz	13	3	1	9	24	29	10
12	FC Lausanne-Sport	13	1	4	8	12	23	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Zurich	St Gallen
Servette	0-0 D	2-1 W
Young Boys	5-3 W	0-2 L
FC Thun	4-2 W	3-4 L
FC Sion	1-1 D	0-3 L
Grasshoppers	2-2 D	0-2 L
FC Lausanne-Sport	3-2 W	1-0 W
Basel	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Zurich (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Zurich

LWLDWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Servette Switzerland Super League	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
01/11	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	2-3	5-3	6	5	W
24/10	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
10/10	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	2-1	4-2	5	3	W
19/09	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
13/09	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
05/09	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
01/09	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-4	3	5	L
29/08	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	0-1	3-2	6	5	W
22/08	Basel Switzerland Super League	1-0	1-2	4	11	L

St Gallen

LLWLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Lugano Switzerland Super League	3-0	5-0	7	5	W
31/10	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
24/10	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
11/10	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
20/09	Basel Switzerland Super League	1-1	3-1	7	5	W
16/09	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-4	1-4	8	7	L
12/09	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	0-2	0-3	10	3	L
06/09	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-2	14	3	L
30/08	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	0-1	3-4	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Zurich vs St Gallen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St Gallen win (50%). Probabilities: FC Zurich 27%, draw 23%, St Gallen 50%.

How many goals are expected in FC Zurich vs St Gallen?

The model expects 3.49 goals (FC Zurich 1.47 · St Gallen 2.02), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Zurich vs St Gallen?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.