Football · Italy Serie D · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: Sambiase vs Città di Gela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Sambiase1.41

Città di Gela1.05

1X2

44% 28% 27%

Sambiase Draw Città di Gela

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sambiase 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDWDL

Città di Gela 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDLDL

Head-to-head

Sambiase 2–0 Città di Gela (2 last)

Sambiase2-1Città di Gela
Città di Gela0-3Sambiase

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sambiase 1543 · Città di Gela 1444

	Sambiase	Draw	Città di Gela
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sambiase (rating 1543 vs 1444).
H2H favours Sambiase: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sambiase	Città di Gela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	29/14/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.2	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:33 +10’	2.00	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sambiase 2–0–0 Città di Gela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Italy Serie D	Sambiase	2-1 HT 1-0	Città di Gela
09/11/25 Italy Serie D	Città di Gela	0-3 HT 0-0	Sambiase

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	Pts
1	Sambiase	0
1	ASD CastrumFavara	0
1	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	0
1	ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio	0
1	ASD Ragusa	0
1	Calcio Avola 1949	0
1	Enna Calcio	0
1	Igea Virtus	0
1	ASD Licata	0
1	Reggina	0
1	Milazzo	0
1	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	0
1	Nissa FC	0
1	Vibonese	0
1	Vigor Lamezia	0
16	Città di Gela	-1
17	Trapani	-5
18	Siracusa	-7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sambiase	Città di Gela
Reggina	2-4 L	0-0 D
Nissa FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Milazzo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Enna Calcio	1-1 D	1-6 L
ASD Paterno	3-1 W	2-1 W
SSD Athletic Club Palermo	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sambiase (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sambiase

WLWWWWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	Reggina Italy Serie D	0-2	2-4	5	1	L
26/04	Nissa FC Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
19/04	Milazzo Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/04	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
02/04	ASD Paterno Italy Serie D	0-0	3-1	6	4	W
29/03	Acireale Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/03	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
15/03	ASD Sancataldese Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/03	SSD Athletic Club Palermo Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/02	ACR Messina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Città di Gela

DLDLWLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	Gelbison Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	Vibonese Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	ASD CastrumFavara Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	4	0	L
12/04	Reggina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
02/04	Nissa FC Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
29/03	ASD Paterno Italy Serie D	2-1	2-1	8	4	W
22/03	Sambiase Italy Serie D	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
15/03	Milazzo Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/03	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	1-2	1-6	2	2	L
22/02	SSD Athletic Club Palermo Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sambiase vs Città di Gela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sambiase win (44%). Probabilities: Sambiase 44%, draw 28%, Città di Gela 27%.

How many goals are expected in Sambiase vs Città di Gela?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Sambiase 1.41 · Città di Gela 1.05), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sambiase vs Città di Gela?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.