Football · Wales Championship South · 14/11, 15:00

Prediction: Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians

Team pages: Llantwit Major · Cardiff Draconians

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Llantwit Major1.65

Cardiff Draconians1.57

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Llantwit Major Draw Cardiff Draconians

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Llantwit Major 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLDWLD

Cardiff Draconians 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLDDLWL

Head-to-head

Llantwit Major 0–2 Cardiff Draconians (2 last)

Cardiff Draconians2-0Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major0-2Cardiff Draconians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Llantwit Major 1487 · Cardiff Draconians 1512

	Llantwit Major	Draw	Cardiff Draconians
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cardiff Draconians: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Llantwit Major	Cardiff Draconians
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	1.7 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.75

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +3’	2.25	3.75	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Llantwit Major 0–0–2 Cardiff Draconians

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/12/25 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	2-0 HT 1-0	Llantwit Major
27/09/25 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	0-2 HT 0-2	Cardiff Draconians

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pontypridd Utd	13	8	3	2	35	22	27
2	Aberystwyth	11	8	1	2	28	10	25
3	Pure Swansea	11	7	3	1	34	15	24
4	Caerau Ely	13	7	1	5	24	23	22
5	Baglan Dragons	13	6	2	5	14	14	20
6	Ynyshir Albions	11	5	4	2	20	13	19
7	Afan Lido	14	5	3	6	24	26	18
8	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	13	4	5	4	26	23	17
9	Treowen Stars	12	5	2	5	22	23	17
10	Carmarthen	13	4	3	6	24	30	15
11	Pontardawe Town	11	4	2	5	20	21	14
12	Caerphilly Athletic	13	4	2	7	17	24	14
13	Newport City FC	11	3	4	4	21	17	13
14	Cardiff Draconians	11	3	3	5	14	19	12
15	Llantwit Major	12	3	3	6	14	26	12
16	Llanelli Town	14	0	3	11	12	43	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Llantwit Major	Cardiff Draconians
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-2 D	1-3 L
Newport City FC	2-3 L	1-1 D
Caerau Ely	2-0 W	1-3 L
Pontypridd Utd	1-4 L	1-4 L
Carmarthen	2-1 W	2-2 D
Llanelli Town	2-0 W	4-2 W
Baglan Dragons	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Llantwit Major (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Llantwit Major

LLDWWLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	5	7	D
31/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-3	3	6	L
23/10	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
10/10	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
06/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-4	4	5	L
02/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
26/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
15/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	2	8	L

Cardiff Draconians

DLWWLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
31/10	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	6	1	L
10/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
26/09	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
12/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-2	5	7	W
15/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
07/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Llantwit Major win (39%). Probabilities: Llantwit Major 39%, draw 25%, Cardiff Draconians 36%.

How many goals are expected in Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Llantwit Major 1.65 · Cardiff Draconians 1.57), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.