Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 06/09, 22:00

Prediction: Mushuc Runa vs Leones FC

Team pages: Mushuc Runa · Leones FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Mushuc Runa1.61

Leones FC0.79

1X2

56% 27% 17%

Mushuc Runa Draw Leones FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mushuc Runa 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWDDWD

Leones FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Mushuc Runa 0–1–1 Leones FC (2 last)

Leones FC3-1Mushuc Runa
Leones FC0-0Mushuc Runa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mushuc Runa 1516 · Leones FC 1504

	Mushuc Runa	Draw	Leones FC
Our model	56%	27%	17%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mushuc Runa	Leones FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	1.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.5	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.79 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:03 +12’	1.65	3.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:15	1.71	3.52	4.89
01:39	1.79▲	3.41▼	4.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mushuc Runa 0–1–1 Leones FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	3-1 HT 2-1	Mushuc Runa
21/07/24 Ecuador Cup	Leones FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Mushuc Runa

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	28	22	2	4	67	30	68
2	Macara	28	14	6	8	39	30	48
3	SD Aucas	28	14	6	8	32	27	48
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	28	12	9	7	48	26	45
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	28	11	9	8	30	23	42
6	LDU Quito	28	12	6	10	27	22	42
7	Leones FC	28	10	8	10	30	30	38
8	Club Atletico Libertad	28	10	8	10	30	31	38
9	Mushuc Runa	28	9	10	9	33	34	37
10	Guayaquil City	28	9	9	10	27	31	36
11	Emelec	28	9	9	10	24	33	36
12	Deportivo Cuenca	28	10	5	13	24	35	35
13	Orense	28	8	6	14	31	42	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	28	9	2	17	26	39	29
15	Delfin SC	28	7	6	15	18	29	27
16	Manta FC	28	5	5	18	17	41	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mushuc Runa	Leones FC
LDU Quito	0-0 D	1-0 W
Delfin SC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Deportivo Cuenca	0-0 D	1-1 D
Barcelona Guayaquil	0-0 D	1-1 D
Manta FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Emelec	1-1 D	1-2 L
Orense	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leones FC (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mushuc Runa

LWDLWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
28/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
22/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
10/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
01/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
27/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	13	2	L
24/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
20/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
14/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	5	L

Leones FC

DWDWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
22/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
15/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
23/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mushuc Runa vs Leones FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mushuc Runa win (56%). Probabilities: Mushuc Runa 56%, draw 27%, Leones FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Mushuc Runa vs Leones FC?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Mushuc Runa 1.61 · Leones FC 0.79), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa vs Leones FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.