Football · Mexico Liga TDP · 06/09, 00:30
Prediction: Arietes FC vs Ecatepec FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.78Total
Arietes FC0.91
Ecatepec FC2.87
1X2
Arietes FC
Draw
Ecatepec FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
0-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Arietes FC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Ecatepec FC
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arietes FC
2–0
Ecatepec FC
(2 last)
- Ecatepec FC1-3Arietes FC
- Arietes FC4-0Ecatepec FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arietes FC 1474 · Ecatepec FC 1549
| Arietes FC | Draw | Ecatepec FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Market | 9% | 13% | 78% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.78 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ecatepec FC (rating 1474 vs 1549).
- H2H favours Arietes FC: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arietes FC | Ecatepec FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 2.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2.8 | 2.6 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arietes FC 2–0–0 Ecatepec FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/24 Mexico Liga TDP | Ecatepec FC | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Arietes FC |
| 03/11/23 Mexico Liga TDP | Arietes FC | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Ecatepec FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arietes FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03 | Irapuato Olimpo Mexico Liga TDP |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/03 | Valle de Xico FC Mexico Liga TDP |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/03 | Atletico Inter Capital Mexico Liga TDP |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 06/03 | CDC Dominguez Osos Mexico Liga TDP |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/02 | FC San José del Arenal Mexico Liga TDP |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/02 | FC Politécnico Mexico Liga TDP |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/02 | Halcones Zuñiga SC Mexico Liga TDP |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/01 | Atlético Pachuca Mexico Liga TDP |
0-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/12 | CD Novillos Neza Mexico Liga TDP |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 02/12 | Atlético Pachuca Mexico Liga TDP |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Ecatepec FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04 | Lechuzas UPGCH Mexico Liga TDP |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 23/04 | Tlapa Mazatecochco Mexico Liga TDP |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | Formacion Metropolitana FC Mexico Liga TDP |
4-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 07/03 | Club Unión FC Mexico Liga TDP |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 06/02 | Oceanía FC Mexico Liga TDP |
0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/01 | FormaFutIntegral AC Mexico Liga TDP |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 17/01 | Alamos Mexico Liga TDP |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 08/11 | Formacion Metropolitana FC Mexico Liga TDP |
3-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Promodep Central AC Mexico Liga TDP |
– | 5-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 04/10 | Sangre de Campeón Mexico Liga TDP |
0-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arietes FC vs Ecatepec FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ecatepec FC win (77%). Probabilities: Arietes FC 9%, draw 14%, Ecatepec FC 77%.
How many goals are expected in Arietes FC vs Ecatepec FC?
The model expects 3.78 goals (Arietes FC 0.91 · Ecatepec FC 2.87), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Arietes FC vs Ecatepec FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.