Football · Uruguay League Women · 05/09, 19:30
Prediction: Defensor Sporting (W) vs Nacional De Football (W)
Team pages: Defensor Sporting (W) · Nacional De Football (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.9Total
Defensor Sporting (W)0.95
Nacional De Football (W)2.95
1X2
Defensor Sporting (W)
Draw
Nacional De Football (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
0-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Defensor Sporting (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Nacional De Football (W)
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensor Sporting (W)
0–6
Nacional De Football (W)
(6 last)
- Defensor Sporting (W)0-8Nacional De Football (W)
- Defensor Sporting (W)0-2Nacional De Football (W)
- Nacional De Football (W)2-0Defensor Sporting (W)
- Nacional De Football (W)3-1Defensor Sporting (W)
- Nacional De Football (W)1-0Defensor Sporting (W)
- Nacional De Football (W)2-0Defensor Sporting (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting (W) 1533 · Nacional De Football (W) 1608
| Defensor Sporting (W) | Draw | Nacional De Football (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 14% | 77% |
| Market | 2% | 12% | 86% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (W) (rating 1533 vs 1608).
- H2H favours Nacional De Football (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensor Sporting (W) | Nacional De Football (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.5 | 5.5 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 1.9 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 43/43/14% | 86/0/14% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 4.2 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.4 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting (W) 0–0–6 Nacional De Football (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Uruguay League Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 0-8 HT 0-1 | Nacional De Football (W) |
| 01/11/25 Uruguay League Women | Defensor Sporting (W) | 0-2 | Nacional De Football (W) |
| 24/08/25 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 12/07/25 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 11/06/23 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
| 02/10/22 Uruguay League Women | Nacional De Football (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Defensor Sporting (W) |
Standings · Uruguay League Women · Primera Division, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol (W) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Montevideo City Torque (W) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Nacional De Football (W) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Defensor Sporting (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Canadian SC (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 7 |
| 7 | Danubio (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 7 |
| 8 | FC San Jacinto (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 6 |
| 9 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 48 | 1 |
| 10 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensor Sporting (W) | Nacional De Football (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 7-1 W | 7-0 W |
| Danubio (W) | 1-1 D | 9-0 W |
| Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 7-0 W | 15-0 W |
| Montevideo City Torque (W) | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Penarol (W) | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| FC San Jacinto (W) | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Canadian SC (W) | 3-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 6 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional De Football (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensor Sporting (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 7-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/08 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 7-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 0-8 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
Nacional De Football (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
3-0 | 9-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/08 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 9 | L |
| 08/08 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
4-0 | 15-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/07 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 7-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 8-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting (W) vs Nacional De Football (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nacional De Football (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Defensor Sporting (W) 5%, draw 13%, Nacional De Football (W) 82%.
How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting (W) vs Nacional De Football (W)?
The model expects 3.9 goals (Defensor Sporting (W) 0.95 · Nacional De Football (W) 2.95), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting (W) vs Nacional De Football (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.