Football · Colombia Primera A · 10/09, 03:00

Prediction: Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin

Team pages: Boyaca Chico · Atletico Nacional Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Boyaca Chico1.07

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.58

1X2

24% 27% 48%

Boyaca Chico Draw Atletico Nacional Medellin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Boyaca Chico 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLDDW

Atletico Nacional Medellin 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Boyaca Chico 1–1–4 Atletico Nacional Medellin (6 last)

Atletico Nacional Medellin4-0Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico1-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin4-1Boyaca Chico
Atletico Nacional Medellin6-2Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico2-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
Boyaca Chico1-3Atletico Nacional Medellin

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1474 vs 1606).
H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boyaca Chico	Atletico Nacional Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	2.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	3.5 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.92

Under 2.51.87

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:34

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.79 → 6.23▲	Pinn 6.23
X	4.07 → 4.23▲	Pinn 4.23
2	1.51 → 1.49▼	Pinn 1.49

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:13 +41’	5.79	4.07	1.51
00:12 +30’	5.92▲	4.12▲	1.52▲
09:33 +1’	6.23▲	4.23▲	1.49▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boyaca Chico 1–1–4 Atletico Nacional Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	4-0 HT 1-0	Boyaca Chico
06/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
17/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	4-1 HT 1-0	Boyaca Chico
29/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	6-2 HT 4-1	Boyaca Chico
17/03/24 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	2-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin
22/10/23 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-3 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	6	2	0	20	4	20
2	Independiente Medellin	6	5	0	1	12	6	15
3	Deportes Tolima	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
4	Atletico Nacional Medellin	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
5	Millonarios	7	3	2	2	8	5	11
6	Llaneros	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
7	Independiente Santa Fe	7	2	4	1	11	9	10
8	Atletico Bucaramanga	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
9	Once Caldas	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
10	Aguilas Doradas	5	2	3	0	8	6	9
11	Cucuta Deportivo	8	2	3	3	8	13	9
12	Deportivo Cali	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
13	Fortaleza CEIF	8	1	4	3	8	10	7
14	Internacional de Bogota	7	1	4	2	6	8	7
15	Jaguares de Cordoba	7	1	3	3	7	12	6
16	Deportivo Pereira	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
17	Boyaca Chico	6	1	2	3	4	12	5
18	Junior	6	0	3	3	8	12	3
19	Deportivo Pasto	8	0	2	6	7	15	2
20	Alianza	7	0	2	5	5	15	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boyaca Chico	Atletico Nacional Medellin
Fortaleza CEIF	0-0 D	2-1 W
Jaguares de Cordoba	0-1 L	3-0 W
America de Cali	0-7 L	0-1 L
Internacional de Bogota	0-4 L	7-1 W
Deportivo Cali	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boyaca Chico

WLLWLLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
30/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	2	1	D
26/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
21/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	11	10	L
08/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
03/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-7	2	3	L
02/05	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
27/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-4	8	5	L
23/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/04	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Atletico Nacional Medellin

WWWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
27/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
23/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
10/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	13	7	L
02/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/06	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	13	6	W
03/06	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	3	8	L
24/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-1	7	3	W
17/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
13/05	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	2-1	7-1	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional Medellin win (48%). Probabilities: Boyaca Chico 24%, draw 27%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 48%.

How many goals are expected in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Boyaca Chico 1.07 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.