Football · Croatia HNL · 05/09, 17:00

Prediction: NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961

Team pages: NK Varazdin · Istra 1961

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

NK Varazdin1.78

Istra 19611.1

1X2

52% 26% 22%

NK Varazdin Draw Istra 1961

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Varazdin 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWWWLW

Istra 1961 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLDWLD

Head-to-head

NK Varazdin 1–2–3 Istra 1961 (6 last)

NK Varazdin2-0Istra 1961
Istra 19612-1NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin1-3Istra 1961
Istra 19611-0NK Varazdin
Istra 19610-0NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin0-0Istra 1961

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Varazdin 1572 · Istra 1961 1515

	NK Varazdin	Draw	Istra 1961
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Varazdin (rating 1572 vs 1515).
H2H favours Istra 1961: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Varazdin	Istra 1961
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.3	1.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.82
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.44
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.36 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +10’	1.73	3.40	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:29	1.82	3.44	4.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Varazdin 1–2–3 Istra 1961

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	2-0 HT 2-0	Istra 1961
20/03/26 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	2-1 HT 0-1	NK Varazdin
19/12/25 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	1-3 HT 1-1	Istra 1961
03/10/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Varazdin
11/05/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Varazdin
08/03/25 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	0-0 HT 0-0	Istra 1961

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Osijek	5	4	0	1	12	5	12
2	NK Varazdin	5	4	0	1	11	5	12
3	Dinamo Zagreb	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
4	Hajduk Split	5	3	1	1	11	5	10
5	HNK Rijeka	4	2	1	1	5	5	7
6	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	5	2	0	3	7	10	6
7	Istra 1961	5	1	2	2	11	10	5
8	NK Rudes	5	1	0	4	6	15	3
9	Slaven Belupo	5	1	0	4	3	12	3
10	HNK Gorica	5	0	1	4	2	9	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Varazdin	Istra 1961
Dinamo Zagreb	1-3 L	2-2 D
HNK Rijeka	2-0 W	2-3 L
Slaven Belupo	4-1 W	3-0 W
Hajduk Split	2-1 W	2-2 D
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Varazdin (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Varazdin

LLDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
22/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
16/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
09/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	3-0	4-1	5	2	W
02/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
23/05	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/05	Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
09/05	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
03/05	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
26/04	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	1-2	4	2	L

Istra 1961

LWWDLLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
15/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
01/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
23/05	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/05	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
10/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
04/05	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-1	3-1	6	0	W
27/04	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Varazdin win (52%). Probabilities: NK Varazdin 52%, draw 26%, Istra 1961 22%.

How many goals are expected in NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?

The model expects 2.88 goals (NK Varazdin 1.78 · Istra 1961 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.