Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women · 07/11, 16:00
Prediction: Famalicao (W) vs JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)
Team pages: Famalicao (W) · JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.06Total
Famalicao (W)3.03
JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)1.03
1X2
Famalicao (W)
Draw
JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Famalicao (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Famalicao (W)
0–1–0
JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)
(1 last)
- Famalicao (W)2-2JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Famalicao (W) 1541 · JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W) 1403
| Famalicao (W) | Draw | JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 80% | 12% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Famalicao (W) (rating 1541 vs 1403).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Famalicao (W) | JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 3.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/33/33% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.4 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Famalicao (W) 0–1–0 JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women | Famalicao (W) | 2-2 HT 0-2 | JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W) |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women · II Divisao, Women 26/27, Group North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clube de Albergaria (W) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Famalicao (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente FC (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Braga B (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | SC Rio Tinto (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 6 | JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Famalicao (W) | JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Braga B (W) | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Gil Vicente FC (W) | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| SC Rio Tinto (W) | 5-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Clube de Albergaria (W) | 0-2 L | 0-5 L |
| CA Ouriense (W) | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| FC Porto (W) | 2-4 L | 1-4 L |
| CF Benfica (W) | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Benfica B (W) | 2-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 0 W 0 D 8 L |
Better against common opponents: Famalicao (W) (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Famalicao (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Braga B (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Gil Vicente FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | SC Rio Tinto (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/09 | Clube de Albergaria (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Gil Vicente FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Clube de Albergaria (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | CA Ouriense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/04 | FC Porto (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | CF Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Benfica B (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Clube de Albergaria (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | SC Rio Tinto (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | Braga B (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Gil Vicente FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Benfica B (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | CF Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
2-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Gil Vicente FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | Clube de Albergaria (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | CA Ouriense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 22/03 | FC Porto (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional II Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | 0 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Famalicao (W) vs JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Famalicao (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Famalicao (W) 78%, draw 13%, JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W) 9%.
How many goals are expected in Famalicao (W) vs JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)?
The model expects 4.06 goals (Famalicao (W) 3.03 · JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W) 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Famalicao (W) vs JuveForce Ponte de Vagos (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.