Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 06/09, 17:00

Prediction: Sporting vs Nacional

Team pages: Sporting · Nacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Sporting2.5

Nacional0.61

1X2

78% 15% 7%

Sporting Draw Nacional

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWDWWW

Nacional 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWDWLL

Head-to-head

Sporting 6–0 Nacional (6 last)

Sporting2-1Nacional
Nacional1-4Sporting
Sporting2-0Nacional
Sporting3-1Nacional
Nacional1-6Sporting
Sporting2-0Nacional

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting 1631 · Nacional 1472

	Sporting	Draw	Nacional
Our model	78%	16%	6%
Market	79%	14%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting (rating 1631 vs 1472).
H2H favours Sporting: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting	Nacional
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.5	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.50

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.88

2 (+2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 15:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.18▲	Bet365 1.18
X	7.50 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50
2	17.00 → 13.00▼	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +3’	1.14	7.50	17.00
07:26 +5’	1.18▲	6.50▼	13.00▼
09:27 +6’	1.20▲	6.25▼	13.00
11:35 +5’	1.18▼	6.50▲	13.00
13:39 +9’	1.20▲	6.25▼	13.00
14:58 +2’	1.18▼	6.50▲	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting 6–0–0 Nacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	2-1 HT 0-0	Nacional
23/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	1-4 HT 1-0	Sporting
25/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	2-0 HT 1-0	Nacional
29/10/24 Portugal League Cup	Sporting	3-1 HT 0-0	Nacional
17/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	1-6 HT 1-2	Sporting
01/05/21 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	2-0 HT 0-0	Nacional

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	4	4	0	0	9	0	12
2	Sporting	4	3	1	0	12	5	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	11	3	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
7	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Estrela	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
9	Braga	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
11	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
12	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	3	5	3
13	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	2	7	3
14	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	2	4	2
15	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
15	Alverca	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
17	Estoril	4	0	1	3	2	7	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	0	11	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting	Nacional
Alverca	3-1 W	1-0 W
Guimaraes	3-2 W	0-1 L
Estrela	2-2 D	2-3 L
Tondela	2-2 D	2-0 W
AVS	1-1 D	1-2 L
Benfica	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting

LDDWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	4-0	4-0	3	2	W
22/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
14/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-2	5	8	W
08/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
11/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	4-1	6	7	W
04/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	5-1	1	3	W
29/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
26/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
19/04	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L

Nacional

LWWLLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
23/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
10/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
11/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
25/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/04	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting vs Nacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting win (78%). Probabilities: Sporting 78%, draw 15%, Nacional 7%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting vs Nacional?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Sporting 2.5 · Nacional 0.61), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting vs Nacional?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.