Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 06/09, 17:00

Prediction: Estrela vs Famalicao

Team pages: Estrela · Famalicao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Estrela1.11

Famalicao1.29

1X2

31% 30% 40%

Estrela Draw Famalicao

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Estrela 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDDDW

Famalicao 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWDWDLLD

Head-to-head

Estrela 2–3–1 Famalicao (6 last)

Estrela0-0Famalicao
Famalicao2-3Estrela
Famalicao0-0Estrela
Estrela0-3Famalicao
Famalicao0-0Estrela
Estrela1-0Famalicao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrela 1493 · Famalicao 1482

	Estrela	Draw	Famalicao
Our model	31%	30%	39%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Estrela: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrela	Famalicao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2.9	3.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.20

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.20 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.53 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:52 +3’	3.30	3.20	2.20
07:26 +5’	3.00▼	3.20	2.35▲
22:57 +2’	3.00	3.20	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:58	3.09	3.15	2.45
22:58	2.99▼	3.13▼	2.53▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrela 2–3–1 Famalicao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	0-0 HT 0-0	Famalicao
27/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	2-3 HT 2-2	Estrela
25/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	0-0 HT 0-0	Estrela
19/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	0-3 HT 0-1	Famalicao
16/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	0-0 HT 0-0	Estrela
29/10/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	1-0 HT 0-0	Famalicao

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	4	4	0	0	9	0	12
2	Sporting	4	3	1	0	12	5	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	11	3	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
7	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Estrela	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
9	Braga	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
11	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
12	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	3	5	3
13	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	2	7	3
14	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	2	4	2
15	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
15	Alverca	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
17	Estoril	4	0	1	3	2	7	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	0	11	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estrela	Famalicao
Alverca	2-2 D	1-0 W
Braga	2-2 D	2-2 D
Moreirense	2-3 L	1-1 D
FC Porto	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Famalicao (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrela

LLLLLDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
15/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
08/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
11/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
02/05	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	2-3	4	8	L
26/04	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	0	6	L
19/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
11/04	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
04/04	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	7	L

Famalicao

DDDWDWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
23/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
07/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
16/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
11/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
26/04	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
10/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	13	11	D
04/04	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrela vs Famalicao?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Famalicao win (40%). Probabilities: Estrela 31%, draw 30%, Famalicao 40%.

How many goals are expected in Estrela vs Famalicao?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Estrela 1.11 · Famalicao 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrela vs Famalicao?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.