Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 06/09, 17:00

Prediction: FC Porto vs Moreirense

Team pages: FC Porto · Moreirense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

FC Porto2.23

Moreirense0.54

1X2

76% 17% 7%

FC Porto Draw Moreirense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Porto 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Moreirense 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Porto 5–1 Moreirense (6 last)

FC Porto3-0Moreirense
Moreirense1-2FC Porto
FC Porto3-1Moreirense
Moreirense0-3FC Porto
Moreirense2-1FC Porto
FC Porto2-0Moreirense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Porto 1621 · Moreirense 1467

	FC Porto	Draw	Moreirense
Our model	75%	18%	7%
Market	76%	16%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1621 vs 1467).
H2H favours FC Porto: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Porto	Moreirense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.5	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.1	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.8	1.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.75

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.88

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 14:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.18▲	Bet365 1.18
X	7.50 → 6.00▼	Bet365 6.00
2	17.00 → 15.00▼	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +4’	1.13	7.50	17.00
08:23 +10’	1.14▲	7.00▼	15.00▼
12:37 +12’	1.18▲	6.25▼	13.00▼
14:58 +2’	1.20▲	5.75▼	12.00▼
22:42 +6’	1.18▼	6.00▲	13.00▲
11:17 +6’	1.20▲	5.75▼	13.00
14:41 +9’	1.18▼	6.00▲	15.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Porto 5–0–1 Moreirense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	3-0 HT 2-0	Moreirense
27/10/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Porto
02/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	3-1 HT 1-1	Moreirense
21/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Porto
24/11/24 Portugal Cup	Moreirense	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Porto
31/10/24 Portugal League Cup	FC Porto	2-0 HT 1-0	Moreirense

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	4	4	0	0	9	0	12
2	Sporting	4	3	1	0	12	5	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	11	3	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
7	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Estrela	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
9	Braga	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
11	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
12	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	3	5	3
13	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	2	7	3
14	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	2	4	2
15	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
15	Alverca	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
17	Estoril	4	0	1	3	2	7	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	0	11	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Porto	Moreirense
Arouca	2-0 W	0-4 L
AVS	1-3 L	0-0 D
Estrela	2-1 W	3-2 W
Tondela	2-0 W	0-2 L
Estoril	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Porto

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-0	1	0	W
23/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
15/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
09/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
16/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
02/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
26/04	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-1	6	6	W
19/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	8	9	W
12/04	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W

Moreirense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
16/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	0-4	3	7	L
09/08	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
16/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
11/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
02/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	3-2	1	8	W
25/04	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	2	4	L
20/04	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
10/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	0	11	D
04/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Porto vs Moreirense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Porto win (76%). Probabilities: FC Porto 76%, draw 17%, Moreirense 7%.

How many goals are expected in FC Porto vs Moreirense?

The model expects 2.77 goals (FC Porto 2.23 · Moreirense 0.54), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Moreirense?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.