Football · Argentina Nacional B · 05/09, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato Parana

Team pages: Deportivo Maipu · Patronato Parana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Deportivo Maipu1.25

Patronato Parana0.99

1X2

41% 31% 28%

Deportivo Maipu Draw Patronato Parana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Maipu 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWLWWL

Patronato Parana 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLDDLDWL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Maipu 2–2–1 Patronato Parana (5 last)

Patronato Parana0-0Deportivo Maipu
Patronato Parana1-0Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu1-1Patronato Parana
Deportivo Maipu3-1Patronato Parana
Patronato Parana1-2Deportivo Maipu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Maipu 1517 · Patronato Parana 1460

	Deportivo Maipu	Draw	Patronato Parana
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	41%	32%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Maipu (rating 1517 vs 1460).
H2H favours Deportivo Maipu: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Maipu	Patronato Parana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	56/33/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.90

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:17 +10’	2.25	2.90	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Maipu 2–2–1 Patronato Parana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Maipu
20/07/25 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Maipu
16/03/25 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Maipu	1-1 HT 1-1	Patronato Parana
18/08/24 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Maipu	3-1 HT 1-1	Patronato Parana
31/03/24 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Maipu

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	25	12	9	4	26	14	45
2	Gimnasia Jujuy	26	13	6	7	39	32	45
3	Club Atletico Temperley	26	11	10	5	29	22	43
4	CA Atlanta	26	13	3	10	31	27	42
5	Ferrocarril Midland	26	11	8	7	29	19	41
6	Gimnasia y Tiro	27	11	8	8	28	25	41
7	Atletico Rafaela	27	10	9	8	20	20	39
8	Deportivo Maipu	27	11	5	11	34	28	38
9	San Martin SJ	25	9	8	8	27	24	35
10	San Martin de Tucuman	26	8	11	7	26	23	35
11	CA Colegiales	26	9	7	10	24	25	34
12	Quilmes	26	8	8	10	27	22	32
13	Almagro	26	8	7	11	21	29	31
14	Nueva Chicago	27	7	8	12	20	27	29
15	Agropecuario	26	7	8	11	22	30	29
16	Patronato Parana	26	5	13	8	23	29	28
17	Chacarita Juniors	27	7	6	14	19	29	27
18	CA Guemes	25	5	7	13	20	40	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Maipu	Patronato Parana
CA Colegiales	0-1 L	2-2 D
Quilmes	1-0 W	3-3 D
Ferrocarril Midland	0-2 L	0-1 L
CA Atlanta	4-2 W	2-0 W
Gimnasia y Tiro	0-1 L	1-1 D
San Martin de Tucuman	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Patronato Parana (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Maipu

DWWDLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
23/08	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
08/08	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
02/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	2-2	4-2	6	5	W
26/07	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
17/07	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
11/07	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/07	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
21/06	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	9	5	D

Patronato Parana

DLDLDDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
26/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
22/08	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	1-1	3-3	7	6	D
15/08	Colon Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
09/08	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
01/08	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	3-1	3-3	5	8	D
26/07	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
12/07	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
05/07	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	–	0-1	–	–	L
21/06	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	6	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato Parana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Maipu win (41%). Probabilities: Deportivo Maipu 41%, draw 31%, Patronato Parana 28%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato Parana?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Deportivo Maipu 1.25 · Patronato Parana 0.99), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato Parana?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.