Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 3 · 05/09, 05:30
Prediction: Newmarket vs AC Carina
Team pages: Newmarket · AC Carina
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.5Total
Newmarket2.73
AC Carina1.77
1X2
Newmarket
Draw
AC Carina
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Newmarket
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
AC Carina
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newmarket
5–1
AC Carina
(6 last)
- AC Carina6-2Newmarket
- Newmarket5-4AC Carina
- Newmarket3-2AC Carina
- AC Carina1-3Newmarket
- AC Carina0-4Newmarket
- Newmarket2-1AC Carina
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newmarket 1600 · AC Carina 1605
| Newmarket | Draw | AC Carina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 19% | 24% |
| Market | 57% | 20% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Newmarket: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newmarket | AC Carina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.4 / 0.8 | 3.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.7 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.7 | 2.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newmarket 5–0–1 AC Carina
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | AC Carina | 6-2 HT 0-1 | Newmarket |
| 30/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 5-4 HT 1-3 | AC Carina |
| 16/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 3-2 HT 2-1 | AC Carina |
| 24/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | AC Carina | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Newmarket |
| 06/06/21 Australia Brisbane Capital League 1 | AC Carina | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Newmarket |
| 07/03/21 Australia Brisbane Capital League 1 | Newmarket | 2-1 HT 1-0 | AC Carina |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newmarket | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 55 |
| 2 | AC Carina | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 34 | 54 |
| 3 | Moggill | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 65 | 35 | 47 |
| 4 | Yeronga FC | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 69 | 35 | 43 |
| 5 | Springfield United | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 50 | 49 | 34 |
| 6 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 39 | 51 | 30 |
| 7 | Logan Roos FC | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 53 | 71 | 30 |
| 8 | Ipswich Knights | 24 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 56 | 28 |
| 9 | North Lakes United | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 68 | 24 |
| 10 | North Pine | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 49 | 24 |
| 11 | North Brisbane FC | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 70 | 23 |
| 12 | University of Queensland | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 61 | 22 |
| 13 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 24 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 42 | 84 | 21 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newmarket | AC Carina |
|---|---|---|
| Yeronga FC | 4-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Moggill | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 3-0 W | 7-1 W |
| North Pine | 3-1 W | 3-2 W |
| North Brisbane FC | 5-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 5 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: AC Carina (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newmarket
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Yeronga FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Yeronga FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 01/08 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/07 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-0 | 9-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 22/07 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 6-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 19/07 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-0 | 9-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
AC Carina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 12/08 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-0 | 7-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/07 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/07 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 7-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | Yeronga FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newmarket vs AC Carina?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newmarket win (57%). Probabilities: Newmarket 57%, draw 19%, AC Carina 23%.
How many goals are expected in Newmarket vs AC Carina?
The model expects 4.5 goals (Newmarket 2.73 · AC Carina 1.77), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Newmarket vs AC Carina?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.