Football · Kenya Premier League · 01/09, 14:00
Prediction: Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.79Total
Ulinzi Stars0.91
Tusker0.88
1X2
Ulinzi Stars
Draw
Tusker
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
Ulinzi Stars
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Tusker
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ulinzi Stars
1–1–4
Tusker
(6 last)
- Ulinzi Stars2-0Tusker
- Ulinzi Stars1-2Tusker
- Tusker1-0Ulinzi Stars
- Ulinzi Stars0-1Tusker
- Tusker1-1Ulinzi Stars
- Ulinzi Stars0-1Tusker
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ulinzi Stars 1551 · Tusker 1505
| Ulinzi Stars | Draw | Tusker | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 36% | 31% |
| Market | 35% | 32% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ulinzi Stars (rating 1551 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Tusker: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ulinzi Stars | Tusker | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 13/63/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.9 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulinzi Stars 1–1–4 Tusker
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 Kenya Premier League | Ulinzi Stars | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Tusker |
| 03/05/26 Kenya Cup | Ulinzi Stars | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Tusker |
| 05/12/25 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ulinzi Stars |
| 25/01/25 Kenya Premier League | Ulinzi Stars | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tusker |
| 23/10/24 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ulinzi Stars |
| 21/04/24 Kenya Premier League | Ulinzi Stars | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tusker |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3K FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | APS Bomet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bandari FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | KCB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Administration Police FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mara Sugar FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mathare United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Migori Youth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mombasa United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Muranga Seal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nairobi United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Posta Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shabana FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tusker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ulinzi Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ulinzi Stars | Tusker |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Leopards | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Bandari FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| APS Bomet | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Sofapaka FC | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Nairobi United | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ulinzi Stars (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ulinzi Stars
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 22/03 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Tusker
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/05 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/05 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 14/04 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ulinzi Stars win (34%). Probabilities: Ulinzi Stars 34%, draw 34%, Tusker 32%.
How many goals are expected in Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
The model expects 1.79 goals (Ulinzi Stars 0.91 · Tusker 0.88), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.