Football · Kenya Premier League · 02/09, 14:00

Prediction: Nairobi United vs KCB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Nairobi United1.26

KCB0.87

1X2

44% 31% 25%

Nairobi United Draw KCB

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nairobi United 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLDDW

KCB 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLDLWW

Head-to-head

Nairobi United 1–2–1 KCB (4 last)

Nairobi United0-1KCB
Nairobi United1-1KCB
KCB0-2Nairobi United
Nairobi United0-0KCB

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nairobi United 1555 · KCB 1490

	Nairobi United	Draw	KCB
Our model	44%	32%	24%
Market	45%	31%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nairobi United (rating 1555 vs 1490).
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nairobi United	KCB
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X2.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:01 +14’	2.00	2.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nairobi United 1–2–1 KCB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Kenya Cup	Nairobi United	0-1 HT 0-1	KCB
04/03/26 Kenya Premier League	Nairobi United	1-1 HT 1-1	KCB
15/01/26 Kenya Premier League	KCB	0-2 HT 0-1	Nairobi United
12/04/25 Kenya Cup	Nairobi United	0-0 HT 0-0	KCB

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	3K FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bandari FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gor Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kakamega Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Administration Police FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mara Sugar FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mombasa United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Muranga Seal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Posta Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shabana FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nairobi United	KCB
Administration Police FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Posta Rangers	2-2 D	0-1 L
Kakamega Homeboyz	2-2 D	1-1 D
Shabana FC	3-0 W	2-1 W
Mara Sugar FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nairobi United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nairobi United

DWDWWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/05	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
16/05	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
06/05	Tusker Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
25/04	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
19/04	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	3-2	4-2	3	2	W
08/04	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	1-2	2-2	0	2	D
05/04	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
01/04	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D

KCB

LWWLDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
27/05	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
10/05	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
06/05	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	1	L
26/04	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/04	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
05/04	Bidco United Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
28/03	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
21/03	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	1-2	1-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nairobi United vs KCB?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nairobi United win (44%). Probabilities: Nairobi United 44%, draw 31%, KCB 25%.

How many goals are expected in Nairobi United vs KCB?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Nairobi United 1.26 · KCB 0.87), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nairobi United vs KCB?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.