Football · Mexico Primera Premier · 14/11, 22:30

Prediction: Zacatepec FC vs Montaneses FC

Team pages: Zacatepec FC · Montaneses FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Zacatepec FC1.79

Montaneses FC1.44

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Zacatepec FC Draw Montaneses FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Zacatepec FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDLDLW

Montaneses FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWLLLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zacatepec FC 1510 · Montaneses FC 1458

	Zacatepec FC	Draw	Montaneses FC
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zacatepec FC (rating 1510 vs 1458).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zacatepec FC	Montaneses FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.5	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:10 +13’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Mexico Primera Premier · Liga Primera Premier 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	10	6	3	1	24	9	25
2	Pioneros de Cancun	10	6	2	2	21	10	23
3	Club Celaya FC	10	5	3	2	18	10	21
4	Jaguares de Chiapas FC	10	3	6	1	11	10	16
5	Deportiva Venados	10	3	4	3	19	18	14
6	Chapulineros de Oaxaca	10	3	4	3	13	17	13
7	Montaneses FC	11	3	2	6	15	21	12
8	Inter Playa del Carmen	10	2	1	7	10	20	7
9	Tapachula Soconusco FC	10	2	0	8	11	28	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zacatepec FC	Montaneses FC
Tapachula Soconusco FC	4-2 W	2-1 W
Racing de Veracruz	1-5 L	1-3 L
Pioneros de Cancun	0-0 D	1-2 L
H2O Purepechas FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Lobos ULM	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Zacatepec FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zacatepec FC

LWDWWDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Tapachula Soconusco FC Mexico Primera Premier	2-1	4-2	6	5	W
31/10	Racing de Veracruz Mexico Primera Premier	0-2	1-5	3	1	L
24/10	Pioneros de Cancun Mexico Primera Premier	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
18/10	Irapuato Mexico Primera Premier	0-0	0-2	0	5	L
03/10	CF Reboceros La Piedad Mexico Primera Premier	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
26/09	Cordobes Futbol Club Mexico Primera Premier	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
19/09	H2O Purepechas FC Mexico Primera Premier	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
11/09	Tritones Vallarta MFC Mexico Primera Premier	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
05/09	Lobos ULM Mexico Primera Premier	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
29/08	Tigres de Álica FC Mexico Primera Premier	0-2	1-3	5	1	L

Montaneses FC

DLLWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Los Cabos United Mexico Primera Premier	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
01/11	H2O Purepechas FC Mexico Primera Premier	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
25/10	Lobos ULM Mexico Primera Premier	0-0	0-3	5	8	L
17/10	Chapulineros de Oaxaca Mexico Primera Premier	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
11/10	Tapachula Soconusco FC Mexico Primera Premier	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
03/10	Pioneros de Cancun Mexico Primera Premier	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
27/09	Inter Playa del Carmen Mexico Primera Premier	1-0	3-2	5	6	W
20/09	Club Celaya FC Mexico Primera Premier	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
13/09	Racing de Veracruz Mexico Primera Premier	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
06/09	Jaguares de Chiapas FC Mexico Primera Premier	1-2	2-2	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zacatepec FC vs Montaneses FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zacatepec FC win (45%). Probabilities: Zacatepec FC 45%, draw 25%, Montaneses FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Zacatepec FC vs Montaneses FC?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Zacatepec FC 1.79 · Montaneses FC 1.44), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Zacatepec FC vs Montaneses FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.