Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 07/11, 19:00

Prediction: Campo Grande AC vs Audax Rio

Team pages: Campo Grande AC · Audax Rio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Campo Grande AC0.92

Audax Rio1.19

1X2

28% 30% 42%

Campo Grande AC Draw Audax Rio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Campo Grande AC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Audax Rio 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Campo Grande AC 1485 · Audax Rio 1432

	Campo Grande AC	Draw	Audax Rio
Our model	27%	32%	41%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Campo Grande AC (rating 1485 vs 1432).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 13.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Campo Grande AC	Audax Rio
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	2.4 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.3	7.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
X	3.10 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.37 ★
2	2.00 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +10’	3.40	3.10	2.00
08:29 +2’	3.10▼	3.30▲	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +32’	2.67	3.26	2.28
10:01	3.44▲	3.55▲	1.83▼
11:34 +32’	2.99▼	3.37▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Goytacaz	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
2	Serrano	10	6	3	1	14	8	21
3	Duque de Caxias FC	10	6	1	3	16	8	19
4	Niteroiense	10	6	1	3	12	9	19
5	Petropolis	10	4	6	0	12	7	18
6	Artsul Futebol Clube	10	4	4	2	14	10	16
7	Campo Grande AC	10	3	3	4	8	13	12
8	Macae Esporte FC	10	3	2	5	10	11	11
9	Sao Cristovao RJ	10	2	4	4	6	8	10
10	Nova Cidade	10	1	3	6	8	13	6
11	Audax Rio	10	1	2	7	6	14	5
12	Carapebus/Campos	10	1	2	7	9	21	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Campo Grande AC	Audax Rio
Goytacaz	0-2 L	1-1 D
Niteroiense	2-0 W	1-2 L
Sao Cristovao RJ	0-0 D	1-0 W
Duque de Caxias FC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Nova Cidade	0-3 L	0-0 D
Petropolis	0-0 D	2-3 L
Serrano	1-1 D	0-1 L
Macae Esporte FC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Artsul Futebol Clube	2-3 L	0-2 L
Carapebus/Campos	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Campo Grande AC (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Campo Grande AC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
24/10	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
21/10	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
17/10	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-3	3	9	L
10/10	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-3	5	5	L
03/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
26/09	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
12/09	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	2-3	–	–	L
05/09	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	5	9	W

Audax Rio

LLLLDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
24/10	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
21/10	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
17/10	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
10/10	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
03/10	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
26/09	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	2-3	3	6	L
19/09	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	17	5	L
06/09	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	5	15	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Campo Grande AC vs Audax Rio?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Audax Rio win (42%). Probabilities: Campo Grande AC 28%, draw 30%, Audax Rio 42%.

How many goals are expected in Campo Grande AC vs Audax Rio?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Campo Grande AC 0.92 · Audax Rio 1.19), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Campo Grande AC vs Audax Rio?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.