Football · Romania Liga III · 13/11, 13:00

Prediction: Otelul Galati II vs ACS Progresul Fundulea

Team pages: Otelul Galati II · ACS Progresul Fundulea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

Otelul Galati II1.12

ACS Progresul Fundulea2.65

1X2

14% 17% 70%

Otelul Galati II Draw ACS Progresul Fundulea

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Otelul Galati II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDWLLL

ACS Progresul Fundulea 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Otelul Galati II 0–1 ACS Progresul Fundulea (1 last)

ACS Progresul Fundulea4-1Otelul Galati II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Otelul Galati II 1426 · ACS Progresul Fundulea 1563

	Otelul Galati II	Draw	ACS Progresul Fundulea
Our model	13%	18%	69%
Market	14%	16%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ACS Progresul Fundulea (rating 1426 vs 1563).
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Otelul Galati II	ACS Progresul Fundulea
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.3	2.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	6.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.50

X5.50

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.90

2 (-1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:42 +20’	6.50	5.50	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Otelul Galati II 0–0–1 ACS Progresul Fundulea

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Romania Liga III	ACS Progresul Fundulea	4-1	Otelul Galati II

Standings · Romania Liga III · Liga 3 26/27, Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Agricola Borcea	12	10	1	1	35	9	31
2	ACS Progresul Fundulea	12	8	1	3	33	15	25
3	Unirea Branistea	12	7	1	4	24	17	22
4	CS Agigea	12	6	3	3	21	19	21
5	CS Sporting Liesti	12	7	0	5	42	23	21
6	Inainte Modelu	12	6	1	5	23	20	19
7	CSA Axiopolis	12	5	1	6	26	27	16
8	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	12	5	1	6	23	33	16
9	Dunarea Calarasi	12	4	4	4	11	14	16
10	Gloria Baneasa	12	2	2	8	16	31	8
11	Otelul Galati II	12	2	1	9	10	30	7
12	CS Portul Constanta	12	1	2	9	14	40	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Otelul Galati II	ACS Progresul Fundulea
FC Agricola Borcea	0-3 L	2-4 L
Unirea Branistea	0-2 L	2-4 L
Dunarea Calarasi	0-2 L	1-1 D
Inainte Modelu	2-1 W	4-0 W
CS Agigea	2-2 D	4-2 W
CS Portul Constanta	2-1 W	6-0 W
CS Sporting Liesti	1-6 L	2-0 W
Gloria Baneasa	1-2 L	2-1 W
Recolta Gheorghe Doja	1-2 L	1-2 L
CSA Axiopolis	0-2 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 7 L	6 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ACS Progresul Fundulea (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Otelul Galati II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Agricola Borcea Romania Liga III	0-0	0-3	2	4	L
30/10	Unirea Branistea Romania Liga III	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
23/10	Dunarea Calarasi Romania Liga III	–	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Inainte Modelu Romania Liga III	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	CS Agigea Romania Liga III	–	2-2	–	–	D
02/10	CS Portul Constanta Romania Liga III	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
26/09	CS Sporting Liesti Romania Liga III	–	1-6	–	–	L
23/09	Gloria Baneasa Romania Liga III	0-2	1-2	9	6	L
19/09	Recolta Gheorghe Doja Romania Liga III	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/09	CSA Axiopolis Romania Liga III	–	0-2	1	3	L

ACS Progresul Fundulea

LLWLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Dunarea Calarasi Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Inainte Modelu Romania Liga III	1-0	4-0	7	7	W
24/10	CS Agigea Romania Liga III	–	4-2	–	–	W
17/10	CS Portul Constanta Romania Liga III	–	6-0	–	–	W
10/10	CS Sporting Liesti Romania Liga III	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
03/10	Gloria Baneasa Romania Liga III	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Recolta Gheorghe Doja Romania Liga III	–	1-2	–	–	L
23/09	CSA Axiopolis Romania Liga III	–	4-0	–	–	W
19/09	Unirea Branistea Romania Liga III	1-1	2-4	5	6	L
12/09	FC Agricola Borcea Romania Liga III	–	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Otelul Galati II vs ACS Progresul Fundulea?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ACS Progresul Fundulea win (70%). Probabilities: Otelul Galati II 14%, draw 17%, ACS Progresul Fundulea 70%.

How many goals are expected in Otelul Galati II vs ACS Progresul Fundulea?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Otelul Galati II 1.12 · ACS Progresul Fundulea 2.65), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Otelul Galati II vs ACS Progresul Fundulea?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.