Football · Kenya Premier League · 29/08, 14:00

Prediction: Mathare United vs APS Bomet

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

Mathare United0.98

APS Bomet0.98

1X2

34% 32% 34%

Mathare United Draw APS Bomet

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mathare United 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLDLWLW

APS Bomet 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Mathare United 0–1–1 APS Bomet (2 last)

Mathare United0-2APS Bomet
APS Bomet1-1Mathare United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mathare United 1493 · APS Bomet 1590

	Mathare United	Draw	APS Bomet
Our model	33%	34%	33%
Market	34%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APS Bomet (rating 1493 vs 1590).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mathare United	APS Bomet
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	44/56/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X2.88

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:38 +6’	2.60	2.88	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mathare United 0–1–1 APS Bomet

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Kenya Premier League	Mathare United	0-2 HT 0-1	APS Bomet
09/11/25 Kenya Premier League	APS Bomet	1-1 HT 0-0	Mathare United

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	3K FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bandari FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gor Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kakamega Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Administration Police FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mara Sugar FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mombasa United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Muranga Seal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Posta Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shabana FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mathare United	APS Bomet
Bandari FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Ulinzi Stars	1-2 L	1-0 W
Mara Sugar FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Sofapaka FC	2-2 D	1-0 W
Nairobi United	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: APS Bomet (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mathare United

DLDWLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
23/05	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	0	L
16/05	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
10/05	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
02/05	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
25/04	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
18/04	Bidco United Kenya Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
14/04	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
04/04	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
22/03	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D

APS Bomet

DDWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Tusker Kenya Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
20/05	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
10/05	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
06/05	KCB Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
26/04	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
19/04	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
04/04	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
28/03	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
21/03	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mathare United vs APS Bomet?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mathare United win (34%). Probabilities: Mathare United 34%, draw 32%, APS Bomet 34%.

How many goals are expected in Mathare United vs APS Bomet?

The model expects 1.96 goals (Mathare United 0.98 · APS Bomet 0.98), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Mathare United vs APS Bomet?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.