Football · Kenya Premier League · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: AFC Leopards vs Kakamega Homeboyz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

AFC Leopards1.08

Kakamega Homeboyz1.01

1X2

36% 32% 32%

AFC Leopards Draw Kakamega Homeboyz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Leopards 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWLL

Kakamega Homeboyz 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLDLLLDD

Head-to-head

AFC Leopards 2–2–2 Kakamega Homeboyz (6 last)

Kakamega Homeboyz1-2AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards0-1Kakamega Homeboyz
AFC Leopards1-2Kakamega Homeboyz
Kakamega Homeboyz1-1AFC Leopards
Kakamega Homeboyz0-0AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards2-0Kakamega Homeboyz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Leopards 1511 · Kakamega Homeboyz 1479

	AFC Leopards	Draw	Kakamega Homeboyz
Our model	35%	33%	32%
Market	36%	31%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Leopards	Kakamega Homeboyz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	38/13/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	1.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X2.88

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +4’	2.50	2.88	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Leopards 2–2–2 Kakamega Homeboyz

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Kenya Premier League	Kakamega Homeboyz	1-2 HT 0-2	AFC Leopards
04/01/26 Kenya Premier League	AFC Leopards	0-1 HT 0-1	Kakamega Homeboyz
05/04/25 Kenya Premier League	AFC Leopards	1-2 HT 1-1	Kakamega Homeboyz
07/12/24 Kenya Premier League	Kakamega Homeboyz	1-1 HT 0-1	AFC Leopards
18/02/24 Kenya Premier League	Kakamega Homeboyz	0-0 HT 0-0	AFC Leopards
17/12/23 Kenya Premier League	AFC Leopards	2-0 HT 2-0	Kakamega Homeboyz

Standings · Kenya Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	3K FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bandari FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gor Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kakamega Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Administration Police FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mara Sugar FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mombasa United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Muranga Seal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Posta Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shabana FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Leopards	Kakamega Homeboyz
Gor Mahia	0-1 L	0-1 L
Administration Police FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
Muranga Seal	2-0 W	0-1 L
Kariobangi Sharks	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Leopards (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Leopards

WWWLLWWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Bidco United Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-2	5	0	L
24/05	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
16/05	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
13/05	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
09/05	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
26/04	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
18/04	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	0-3	0-3	6	3	L
05/04	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
29/03	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/03	Tusker Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Kakamega Homeboyz

WWDLDLLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/05	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
16/05	AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League	0-2	1-2	6	4	L
10/05	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
03/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
26/04	KCB Kenya Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
18/04	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
08/04	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	2-1	2-2	4	2	D
04/04	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
28/03	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Leopards vs Kakamega Homeboyz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Leopards win (36%). Probabilities: AFC Leopards 36%, draw 32%, Kakamega Homeboyz 32%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Leopards vs Kakamega Homeboyz?

The model expects 2.09 goals (AFC Leopards 1.08 · Kakamega Homeboyz 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Leopards vs Kakamega Homeboyz?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.