Football · Kenya Premier League · 29/08, 14:00
Prediction: Gor Mahia vs Muranga Seal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Gor Mahia1.65
Muranga Seal0.73
1X2
Gor Mahia
Draw
Muranga Seal
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Gor Mahia
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Muranga Seal
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gor Mahia
3–3–0
Muranga Seal
(6 last)
- Muranga Seal1-3Gor Mahia
- Gor Mahia3-2Muranga Seal
- Muranga Seal0-0Gor Mahia
- Gor Mahia2-2Muranga Seal
- Muranga Seal1-3Gor Mahia
- Gor Mahia0-0Muranga Seal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gor Mahia 1518 · Muranga Seal 1461
| Gor Mahia | Draw | Muranga Seal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 26% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gor Mahia (rating 1518 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Gor Mahia: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gor Mahia | Muranga Seal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/67/33% | 13/50/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.3 | 1.5 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gor Mahia 3–3–0 Muranga Seal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Kenya Premier League | Muranga Seal | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Gor Mahia |
| 14/01/26 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Muranga Seal |
| 18/05/25 Kenya Premier League | Muranga Seal | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gor Mahia |
| 02/11/24 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Muranga Seal |
| 04/05/24 Kenya Premier League | Muranga Seal | 1-3 | Gor Mahia |
| 11/11/23 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Muranga Seal |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3K FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | APS Bomet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bandari FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | KCB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Administration Police FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mara Sugar FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mathare United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Migori Youth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mombasa United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Muranga Seal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nairobi United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Posta Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shabana FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tusker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ulinzi Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gor Mahia | Muranga Seal |
|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United | 0-1 L | 2-4 L |
| Mara Sugar FC | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Administration Police FC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Kakamega Homeboyz | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| AFC Leopards | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Kariobangi Sharks | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Shabana FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Gor Mahia (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gor Mahia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 27/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/04 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 21/03 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Muranga Seal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
2-3 | 2-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gor Mahia vs Muranga Seal?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gor Mahia win (58%). Probabilities: Gor Mahia 58%, draw 26%, Muranga Seal 15%.
How many goals are expected in Gor Mahia vs Muranga Seal?
The model expects 2.38 goals (Gor Mahia 1.65 · Muranga Seal 0.73), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gor Mahia vs Muranga Seal?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.