Football · Uganda Premier League · 29/08, 15:00

Prediction: KCCA vs NEC FC Bugolobi

Team pages: KCCA · NEC FC Bugolobi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

KCCA1.3

NEC FC Bugolobi0.69

1X2

51% 30% 19%

KCCA Draw NEC FC Bugolobi

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

KCCA 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDWWDW

NEC FC Bugolobi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWWLL

Head-to-head

KCCA 3–3 NEC FC Bugolobi (6 last)

KCCA1-0NEC FC Bugolobi
NEC FC Bugolobi3-1KCCA
KCCA2-1NEC FC Bugolobi
NEC FC Bugolobi1-0KCCA
KCCA0-1NEC FC Bugolobi
KCCA1-0NEC FC Bugolobi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KCCA 1581 · NEC FC Bugolobi 1560

	KCCA	Draw	NEC FC Bugolobi
Our model	50%	31%	19%
Market	51%	29%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KCCA	NEC FC Bugolobi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:41 +17’	1.75	3.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KCCA 3–0–3 NEC FC Bugolobi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/08/26 Uganda Super 8	KCCA	1-0 HT 1-0	NEC FC Bugolobi
13/02/26 Uganda Premier League	NEC FC Bugolobi	3-1 HT 1-0	KCCA
12/12/25 Uganda Premier League	KCCA	2-1 HT 1-0	NEC FC Bugolobi
13/02/25 Uganda Premier League	NEC FC Bugolobi	1-0 HT 1-0	KCCA
21/11/24 Uganda Premier League	KCCA	0-1 HT 0-1	NEC FC Bugolobi
31/08/24 Uganda Super 8	KCCA	1-0 HT 0-0	NEC FC Bugolobi

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Entebbe UPPC	1	1	0	1	0	3
2	Blacks Power	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	BUL FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Express FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kataka FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	KCCA	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kitara FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Lugazi FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Maroons	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Mbarara City	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NEC FC Bugolobi	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ntugasaze FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	SC Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Uganda Police FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	UPDF FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	URA	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Vipers SC	1	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KCCA	NEC FC Bugolobi
Mbarara City	4-1 W	1-0 W
URA	0-0 D	1-0 W
Maroons	3-0 W	1-0 W
FC Calvary	0-1 L	0-2 L
Entebbe UPPC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Kitara FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
SC Villa	0-1 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KCCA (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KCCA

WLWWLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	2-0	4-1	7	1	W
19/05	URA Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
13/05	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
07/05	Maroons Uganda Premier League	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
29/04	Vipers SC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
25/04	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
21/04	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
17/04	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
11/04	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
14/03	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	3-0	3	3	W

NEC FC Bugolobi

DWWWDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
20/05	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-3	1-4	3	6	L
09/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
28/04	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
24/04	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
21/04	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
18/04	Maroons Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
09/04	URA Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
13/03	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
10/03	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KCCA vs NEC FC Bugolobi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KCCA win (51%). Probabilities: KCCA 51%, draw 30%, NEC FC Bugolobi 19%.

How many goals are expected in KCCA vs NEC FC Bugolobi?

The model expects 1.99 goals (KCCA 1.3 · NEC FC Bugolobi 0.69), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in KCCA vs NEC FC Bugolobi?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.