Football · Uganda Premier League · 08/10, 15:00

Prediction: UPDF FC vs BUL FC

Team pages: UPDF FC · BUL FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

UPDF FC0.84

BUL FC1.35

1X2

23% 30% 48%

UPDF FC Draw BUL FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

UPDF FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLDLDW

BUL FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLWWWW

Head-to-head

UPDF FC 4–2 BUL FC (6 last)

BUL FC2-5UPDF FC
UPDF FC0-1BUL FC
UPDF FC2-3BUL FC
BUL FC0-2UPDF FC
BUL FC0-1UPDF FC
UPDF FC2-0BUL FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UPDF FC 1464 · BUL FC 1534

	UPDF FC	Draw	BUL FC
Our model	22%	30%	47%
Market	23%	29%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BUL FC (rating 1464 vs 1534).
H2H favours UPDF FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UPDF FC	BUL FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	3.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.10

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
09:09 +7’	3.90	3.10	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UPDF FC 4–0–2 BUL FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Uganda Premier League	BUL FC	2-5 HT 1-4	UPDF FC
30/01/26 Uganda Premier League	UPDF FC	0-1 HT 0-1	BUL FC
24/05/25 Uganda Premier League	UPDF FC	2-3 HT 0-1	BUL FC
04/12/24 Uganda Premier League	BUL FC	0-2 HT 0-1	UPDF FC
12/03/24 Uganda Premier League	BUL FC	0-1 HT 0-0	UPDF FC
09/11/23 Uganda Premier League	UPDF FC	2-0 HT 1-0	BUL FC

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BUL FC	4	4	0	0	11	3	12
2	NEC FC Bugolobi	4	3	1	0	9	2	10
3	SC Villa	4	3	1	0	7	1	10
4	Blacks Power	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
5	Uganda Police FC	4	2	1	1	3	1	7
6	Entebbe UPPC	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
7	Lugazi FC	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
8	UPDF FC	4	1	2	1	2	2	5
9	Express FC	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
10	KCCA	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
11	URA	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
12	Vipers SC	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
13	Maroons	4	1	0	3	5	6	3
14	Kitara FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
15	Mbarara City	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
16	Kataka FC	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
16	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
18	Ntugasaze FC	4	0	0	4	2	11	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UPDF FC	BUL FC
Entebbe UPPC	1-2 L	0-4 L
Kataka FC	0-0 D	4-1 W
SC Villa	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: BUL FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UPDF FC

DLLLDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Maroons Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
10/09	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
01/09	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
29/08	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
23/05	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-2	1-2	2	0	L
19/05	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
13/05	KCCA Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
07/05	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
29/04	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
24/04	URA Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	1	D

BUL FC

WLDDDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Blacks Power Uganda Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
08/09	Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League	2-1	4-1	7	2	W
03/09	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	2-1	4-1	3	4	W
30/08	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
23/05	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
19/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/05	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
08/05	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
28/04	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
24/04	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UPDF FC vs BUL FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an BUL FC win (48%). Probabilities: UPDF FC 23%, draw 30%, BUL FC 48%.

How many goals are expected in UPDF FC vs BUL FC?

The model expects 2.2 goals (UPDF FC 0.84 · BUL FC 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UPDF FC vs BUL FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.