Football · Uganda Premier League · 29/08, 15:00

Prediction: SC Villa vs Kitara FC

Team pages: SC Villa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

SC Villa1.19

Kitara FC0.87

1X2

42% 32% 26%

SC Villa Draw Kitara FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Villa 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLDWWW

Kitara FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWLLDD

Head-to-head

SC Villa 1–2–3 Kitara FC (6 last)

Kitara FC0-0SC Villa
Kitara FC2-1SC Villa
Kitara FC2-0SC Villa
SC Villa1-0Kitara FC
SC Villa0-0Kitara FC
Kitara FC1-0SC Villa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Villa 1569 · Kitara FC 1494

	SC Villa	Draw	Kitara FC
Our model	42%	32%	26%
Market	43%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Villa (rating 1569 vs 1494).
H2H favours Kitara FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Villa	Kitara FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.90

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:07 +50’	2.10	2.90	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Villa 1–2–3 Kitara FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/08/26 Uganda Super 8	Kitara FC	0-0 HT 0-0	SC Villa
30/05/26 Uganda Cup	Kitara FC	2-1 HT 1-1	SC Villa
30/04/26 Uganda Premier League	Kitara FC	2-0 HT 2-0	SC Villa
06/11/25 Uganda Premier League	SC Villa	1-0 HT 0-0	Kitara FC
26/04/25 Uganda Premier League	SC Villa	0-0 HT 0-0	Kitara FC
07/01/25 Uganda Premier League	Kitara FC	1-0 HT 0-0	SC Villa

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Entebbe UPPC	1	1	0	1	0	3
2	Blacks Power	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	BUL FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Express FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kataka FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	KCCA	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kitara FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Lugazi FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Maroons	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Mbarara City	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NEC FC Bugolobi	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ntugasaze FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	SC Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Uganda Police FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	UPDF FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	URA	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Vipers SC	1	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Villa	Kitara FC
NEC FC Bugolobi	4-1 W	0-1 L
BUL FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Buhimba United Saints FC	4-0 W	4-0 W
Lugazi FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Vipers SC	1-1 D	0-0 D
KCCA	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SC Villa (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Villa

WWDWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
20/05	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	3-0	4-1	5	6	W
13/05	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-0	3-1	9	6	W
08/05	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
30/04	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
25/04	Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League	2-0	4-0	3	0	W
22/04	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
15/04	Vipers SC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
11/04	KCCA Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
14/03	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-0	3	5	W

Kitara FC

WDLDWWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
19/05	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/05	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-3	2-3	5	4	L
09/05	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
30/04	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
25/04	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
22/04	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
17/04	KCCA Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
10/04	Vipers SC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
13/03	Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League	4-0	4-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Villa vs Kitara FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Villa win (42%). Probabilities: SC Villa 42%, draw 32%, Kitara FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in SC Villa vs Kitara FC?

The model expects 2.07 goals (SC Villa 1.19 · Kitara FC 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Villa vs Kitara FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.