Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 22/08, 17:00
Prediction: Sabah vs FK Sumqayit
Team pages: Sabah · FK Sumqayit
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.43Total
Sabah2.23
FK Sumqayit1.2
1X2
Sabah
Draw
FK Sumqayit
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sabah
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
FK Sumqayit
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sabah
3–3–0
FK Sumqayit
(6 last)
- Sabah3-1FK Sumqayit
- FK Sumqayit1-3Sabah
- Sabah1-1FK Sumqayit
- FK Sumqayit3-3Sabah
- FK Sumqayit0-4Sabah
- Sabah0-0FK Sumqayit
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sabah 1585 · FK Sumqayit 1443
| Sabah | Draw | FK Sumqayit | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sabah (rating 1585 vs 1443).
- H2H favours Sabah: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sabah | FK Sumqayit | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.4 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.7 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sabah 3–3–0 FK Sumqayit
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FK Sumqayit |
| 22/12/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Sumqayit | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Sabah |
| 28/09/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 1-1 HT 1-1 | FK Sumqayit |
| 29/03/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Sumqayit | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Sabah |
| 27/02/25 Azerbaijan Cup | FK Sumqayit | 0-4 HT 0-0 | Sabah |
| 05/02/25 Azerbaijan Cup | Sabah | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Sumqayit |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | FK Qarabag | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Sabah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Zira IK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Araz FK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Imisli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | FK Gabala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Shamakhi FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | FK Sumqayit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Kapaz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sabah
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/08 | AGF Aarhus UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 05/08 | AGF Aarhus UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/07 | KuPS Kuopio UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/07 | KuPS Kuopio UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 14/07 | T.N.S. UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 07/07 | T.N.S. UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 02/07 | Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Ferencvarosi TC Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
FK Sumqayit
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 05/04 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 19/03 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sabah vs FK Sumqayit?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sabah win (59%). Probabilities: Sabah 59%, draw 22%, FK Sumqayit 18%.
How many goals are expected in Sabah vs FK Sumqayit?
The model expects 3.43 goals (Sabah 2.23 · FK Sumqayit 1.2), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sabah vs FK Sumqayit?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.