Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 22/08, 17:00
Prediction: FK Qarabag vs FK Kapaz
Team pages: FK Qarabag · FK Kapaz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
FK Qarabag2.17
FK Kapaz0.51
1X2
FK Qarabag
Draw
FK Kapaz
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
FK Qarabag
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
FK Kapaz
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Qarabag
3–1–2
FK Kapaz
(6 last)
- FK Kapaz1-0FK Qarabag
- FK Qarabag0-2FK Kapaz
- FK Qarabag1-0FK Kapaz
- FK Qarabag3-0FK Kapaz
- FK Kapaz0-0FK Qarabag
- FK Kapaz0-5FK Qarabag
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Qarabag 1544 · FK Kapaz 1455
| FK Qarabag | Draw | FK Kapaz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 18% | 7% |
| Market | 76% | 16% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Qarabag (rating 1544 vs 1455).
- H2H favours FK Qarabag: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Qarabag | FK Kapaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.2 / 8.2 | 1.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Qarabag 3–1–2 FK Kapaz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Kapaz | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Qarabag |
| 24/01/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Qarabag | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FK Kapaz |
| 04/10/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Qarabag | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kapaz |
| 18/05/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Qarabag | 3-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kapaz |
| 15/03/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Kapaz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Qarabag |
| 18/10/24 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Kapaz | 0-5 HT 0-1 | FK Qarabag |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | FK Qarabag | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Sabah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Zira IK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Araz FK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Imisli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | FK Gabala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Shamakhi FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | FK Sumqayit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Kapaz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Qarabag
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 13/08 | Dynamo Kiev UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/08 | Dynamo Kiev UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 30/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 9 | D |
| 23/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 16/07 | IF Vestri UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 09/07 | IF Vestri UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 01/07 | Ferencvarosi TC Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 01/07 | FC Kharkiv Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 2-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | WSG Swarovski Tirol Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
FK Kapaz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 15/05 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 10/04 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/03 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Qarabag vs FK Kapaz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Qarabag win (76%). Probabilities: FK Qarabag 76%, draw 17%, FK Kapaz 7%.
How many goals are expected in FK Qarabag vs FK Kapaz?
The model expects 2.68 goals (FK Qarabag 2.17 · FK Kapaz 0.51), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Qarabag vs FK Kapaz?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.