Football · Uruguay Cup · 27/08, 01:15
Prediction: Penarol vs Torque
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.73Total
Penarol2
Torque1.73
1X2
Penarol
Draw
Torque
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Torque
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol
5–1
Torque
(6 last)
- Penarol3-1Torque
- Torque0-2Penarol
- Penarol2-1Torque
- Penarol1-3Torque
- Torque2-3Penarol
- Penarol2-0Torque
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Penarol 1597 · Torque 1556
| Penarol | Draw | Torque | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1597 vs 1556).
- H2H favours Penarol: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penarol | Torque | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.6 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.8 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 3.9 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol 5–0–1 Torque
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Torque |
| 09/11/25 Uruguay Clausura | Torque | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Penarol |
| 18/05/25 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Torque |
| 18/04/24 Uruguay Cup | Penarol | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Torque |
| 19/10/23 Uruguay Clausura | Torque | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Penarol |
| 04/07/23 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Torque |
Standings · Uruguay Cup · Copa Uruguay 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA Atenas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Penarol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Danubio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Torque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 06/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
4-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
Torque
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 13/08 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | EC Bahia America Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 9 | W |
| 27/05 | Gremio Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol vs Torque?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Penarol win (43%). Probabilities: Penarol 43%, draw 25%, Torque 32%.
How many goals are expected in Penarol vs Torque?
The model expects 3.73 goals (Penarol 2 · Torque 1.73), with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Torque?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.