Football · Uruguay Cup · 26/08, 20:30

Prediction: Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo

Team pages: Plaza Colonia · Cerro Largo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Plaza Colonia1.19

Cerro Largo1.22

1X2

35% 29% 36%

Plaza Colonia Draw Cerro Largo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Plaza Colonia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLWWDW

Cerro Largo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDWLDD

Head-to-head

Plaza Colonia 2–1–3 Cerro Largo (6 last)

Plaza Colonia0-2Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo0-1Plaza Colonia
Cerro Largo2-1Plaza Colonia
Cerro Largo4-0Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia3-3Cerro Largo
Plaza Colonia2-0Cerro Largo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Plaza Colonia 1540 · Cerro Largo 1519

	Plaza Colonia	Draw	Cerro Largo
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cerro Largo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Plaza Colonia	Cerro Largo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	1.2 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.6	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:20 +3’	2.55	3.25	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Plaza Colonia 2–1–3 Cerro Largo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/11/25 Uruguay Clausura	Plaza Colonia	0-2 HT 0-0	Cerro Largo
24/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Cerro Largo	0-1 HT 0-0	Plaza Colonia
04/05/25 Uruguay Apertura	Cerro Largo	2-1 HT 0-0	Plaza Colonia
18/11/23 Uruguay Clausura	Cerro Largo	4-0 HT 3-0	Plaza Colonia
04/06/23 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Plaza Colonia	3-3 HT 2-0	Cerro Largo
16/04/23 Uruguay Apertura	Plaza Colonia	2-0 HT 1-0	Cerro Largo

Standings · Uruguay Cup · Copa Uruguay 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cerro Largo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rentistas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Defensor Sporting	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Plaza Colonia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Plaza Colonia

DWLLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	3-1	4-1	1	7	W
10/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	3-0	7	9	W
25/07	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
11/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
04/07	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	10	W
28/06	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
21/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
14/06	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-1	4	9	W
06/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	9	7	D

Cerro Largo

LLWWDDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
08/08	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/08	Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
25/07	Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
14/07	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
09/06	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
30/05	Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
23/05	Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
17/05	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-1	0-1	1	8	L
12/05	Penarol Uruguay Apertura	1-0	2-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cerro Largo win (36%). Probabilities: Plaza Colonia 35%, draw 29%, Cerro Largo 36%.

How many goals are expected in Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Plaza Colonia 1.19 · Cerro Largo 1.22), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.