Football · Uruguay Cup · 25/08, 23:15

Prediction: Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas

Team pages: Defensor Sporting · Rentistas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Defensor Sporting1.67

Rentistas1

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Defensor Sporting Draw Rentistas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Defensor Sporting 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDLDLWLL

Rentistas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWDLD

Head-to-head

Defensor Sporting 2–1–3 Rentistas (6 last)

Defensor Sporting2-3Rentistas
Rentistas1-0Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting0-0Rentistas
Rentistas2-0Defensor Sporting
Rentistas0-1Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting2-0Rentistas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting 1434 · Rentistas 1506

	Defensor Sporting	Draw	Rentistas
Our model	52%	27%	22%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rentistas (rating 1434 vs 1506).
H2H favours Rentistas: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Defensor Sporting	Rentistas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	2.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	6.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:49 +29’	1.73	3.40	4.33
08:12 +3’	1.73	3.50▲	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting 2–1–3 Rentistas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/10/22 Uruguay Clausura	Defensor Sporting	2-3 HT 1-0	Rentistas
05/06/22 Uruguay Apertura	Rentistas	1-0 HT 1-0	Defensor Sporting
25/03/21 Uruguay Clausura	Defensor Sporting	0-0 HT 0-0	Rentistas
07/10/20 Uruguay Apertura	Rentistas	2-0 HT 1-0	Defensor Sporting
06/03/16 Uruguay Clausura	Rentistas	0-1 HT 0-0	Defensor Sporting
12/09/15 Uruguay Apertura	Defensor Sporting	2-0 HT 0-0	Rentistas

Standings · Uruguay Cup · Copa Uruguay 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cerro Largo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rentistas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Defensor Sporting	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Plaza Colonia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Defensor Sporting

LLDDLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-1	0-4	8	10	L
09/08	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-1	8	8	L
04/08	Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
25/07	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
14/07	Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
04/07	Cruzeiro America Friendlies	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
07/06	Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/05	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
24/05	Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
17/05	Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-2	5	7	L

Rentistas

LWWLWDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
16/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
10/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
01/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	2-1	5-2	1	12	W
18/07	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
12/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-1	4	11	W
04/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
27/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
21/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	10	W
14/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensor Sporting win (52%). Probabilities: Defensor Sporting 52%, draw 26%, Rentistas 22%.

How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Defensor Sporting 1.67 · Rentistas 1), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.