Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 23/08, 17:00

Prediction: Leixoes vs UD Leiria

Team pages: Leixoes · UD Leiria

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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.2Total
Leixoes1.59
UD Leiria1.61
1X2
36% 27% 37%
Leixoes Draw UD Leiria
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Leixoes 7-1-2 (W-D-L)
DWWWLWWWLW
UD Leiria 1-3-6 (W-D-L)
DDWLLLDLLL
Head-to-head
Leixoes 1–2–3 UD Leiria (6 last)
  • Leixoes1-4UD Leiria
  • UD Leiria1-3Leixoes
  • Leixoes0-1UD Leiria
  • UD Leiria1-0Leixoes
  • Leixoes0-0UD Leiria
  • UD Leiria0-0Leixoes
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leixoes 1558 · UD Leiria 1438
LeixoesDrawUD Leiria
Our model37%25%38%
Market35%29%36%
Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leixoes (rating 1558 vs 1438).
  • H2H favours UD Leiria: 3-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

LeixoesUD Leiria
Goals for / against (FT)2.1 / 0.91.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)1 / 0.60.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/40/20%40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)3 / 4.82.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.2 / 0.44.6 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leixoes 123 UD Leiria

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DateHomeScoreAway
08/03/26
Portugal Segunda Liga
Leixoes1-4
HT 0-3
UD Leiria
25/10/25
Portugal Segunda Liga
UD Leiria1-3
HT 0-1
Leixoes
30/03/25
Portugal Segunda Liga
Leixoes0-1
HT 0-0
UD Leiria
03/11/24
Portugal Segunda Liga
UD Leiria1-0
HT 1-0
Leixoes
06/04/24
Portugal Segunda Liga
Leixoes0-0
HT 0-0
UD Leiria
18/11/23
Portugal Segunda Liga
UD Leiria0-0
HT 0-0
Leixoes

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Academica 3300 719
2 Portimonense 3210 417
3 Benfica B 3210 427
4 SC Farense 2200 526
5 Lusitania Lourosa 2200 306
6 Sporting B 2200 206
7 Leixoes 2101 113
8 Vizela 2101 123
9 Tondela 3102 243
10 Felgueiras 1932 2020 112
11 SCU Torreense 2011 341
12 Penafiel 2011 231
13 AVS 2011 121
14 Feirense 2011 011
15 Amarante 2002 130
15 UD Leiria 2002 130
17 FC Porto B 2002 150
17 Chaves 2002 150

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLeixoesUD Leiria
Benfica B 0-1 L 1-2 L
Lusitania Lourosa 2-1 W 0-0 D
Record vs common 1 W 0 D 1 L 0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leixoes (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leixoes

DWWWLWWWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
16/08 Tondela
Portugal Segunda Liga
0-0 1-0 28 W
10/08 Benfica B
Portugal Segunda Liga
0-1 0-1 88 L
01/08 Casa Pia
Europe Friendlies
3-2 6-2 33 W
17/05 Lusitania Lourosa
Portugal Segunda Liga
1-0 2-1 86 W
09/05 Chaves
Portugal Segunda Liga
1-1 2-1 25 W
01/05 Maritimo
Portugal Segunda Liga
1-2 2-3 18 L
25/04 Portimonense
Portugal Segunda Liga
0-0 2-0 114 W
20/04 FC Porto B
Portugal Segunda Liga
3-0 3-0 25 W
12/04 UD Oliveirense
Portugal Segunda Liga
1-0 2-0 74 W
06/04 SCU Torreense
Portugal Segunda Liga
0-0 1-1 45 D

UD Leiria

DDWLLLDLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
15/08 Benfica B
Portugal Segunda Liga
1-1 1-2 74 L
09/08 Vizela
Portugal Segunda Liga
0-1 0-1 55 L
28/07 Las Palmas
Europe Friendlies
2-0 2-3 30 L
17/05 Feirense
Portugal Segunda Liga
1-0 2-2 93 D
09/05 Vizela
Portugal Segunda Liga
0-1 0-1 45 L
03/05 SC Farense
Portugal Segunda Liga
0-1 0-3 27 L
25/04 Felgueiras 1932
Portugal Segunda Liga
1-1 1-2 55 L
18/04 Penafiel
Portugal Segunda Liga
2-1 4-2 26 W
11/04 Benfica B
Portugal Segunda Liga
1-0 2-2 64 D
05/04 Lusitania Lourosa
Portugal Segunda Liga
0-0 0-0 97 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leixoes vs UD Leiria?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UD Leiria win (37%). Probabilities: Leixoes 36%, draw 27%, UD Leiria 37%.

How many goals are expected in Leixoes vs UD Leiria?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Leixoes 1.59 · UD Leiria 1.61), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leixoes vs UD Leiria?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.