Football · Rwanda National League · 17/09, 15:00

Prediction: Gasogi Utd vs Gorilla FC

Team pages: Gasogi Utd · Gorilla FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Gasogi Utd1.53

Gorilla FC1.07

1X2

46% 30% 25%

Gasogi Utd Draw Gorilla FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gasogi Utd 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLLLLL

Gorilla FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLDLWWL

Head-to-head

Gasogi Utd 3–2–1 Gorilla FC (6 last)

Gasogi Utd2-1Gorilla FC
Gorilla FC1-2Gasogi Utd
Gorilla FC2-1Gasogi Utd
Gasogi Utd2-2Gorilla FC
Gasogi Utd1-0Gorilla FC
Gorilla FC2-2Gasogi Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gasogi Utd 1475 · Gorilla FC 1506

	Gasogi Utd	Draw	Gorilla FC
Our model	46%	28%	25%
Market	45%	31%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gasogi Utd: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gasogi Utd	Gorilla FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/33/44%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	3.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X2.90

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:04 +3’	2.00	2.90	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gasogi Utd 3–2–1 Gorilla FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Rwanda National League	Gasogi Utd	2-1 HT 0-0	Gorilla FC
12/01/26 Rwanda National League	Gorilla FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Gasogi Utd
20/05/25 Rwanda National League	Gorilla FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Gasogi Utd
30/11/24 Rwanda National League	Gasogi Utd	2-2 HT 0-0	Gorilla FC
17/02/24 Rwanda National League	Gasogi Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Gorilla FC
10/10/23 Rwanda National League	Gorilla FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Gasogi Utd

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gicumbi FC	3	3	0	0	5	2	9
2	Etincelles	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
3	Marines FC	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Mukura	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Amagaju	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	Gorilla FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
6	Musanze FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	SC Kiyovu	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
9	Sunrise FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	AS Kigali	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Etoile de L'Est	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
12	Al Hilal Omdurman	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Al Merrikh	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	APR FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Rayon Sports FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Police FC	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Bugesera	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Gasogi Utd	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gasogi Utd	Gorilla FC
Mukura	0-2 L	1-2 L
Police FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Etincelles	2-2 D	0-1 L
AS Kigali	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gorilla FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gasogi Utd

WDDWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
28/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-2	2-3	1	2	L
13/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
13/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
05/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	2-1	3-1	3	3	W
01/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-2	2-2	7	1	D
24/04	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
17/04	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-0	2-1	1	5	W

Gorilla FC

LWDWLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	11	6	L
05/09	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
31/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
26/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
15/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
09/05	Mukura Rwanda National League	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
06/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
01/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/04	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
17/04	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gasogi Utd vs Gorilla FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gasogi Utd win (46%). Probabilities: Gasogi Utd 46%, draw 30%, Gorilla FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Gasogi Utd vs Gorilla FC?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Gasogi Utd 1.53 · Gorilla FC 1.07), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gasogi Utd vs Gorilla FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.